Since the first Macro Quarterly was published in late September, investors in risk assets have endured a chastening few months. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it is not easy to pinpoint precisely the catalysts for the shift in investor sentiment that first prompted double-digit drawdowns across global equity markets in October.
While the partial resynchronization of global growth drivers may temper to a degree the recent rise in volatility, overall we see the continued normalization of monetary policy and the gradual tightening of liquidity conditions as more powerful drivers over the medium term. Higher volatility is likely to be around for a while. In our view, the outlook for equities going into 2019 is positive, but the road is likely to remain bumpy.