Where are we in the business cycle? This is always one of the most important questions for asset allocation, but it is becoming even more relevant as this historically long expansion trudges forward. In May, the US economic expansion became the second longest in post-war history,1 which inevitably brings into question how much longer it can possibly last. Of course, the answer to this question can only truly be known ex-post—we can only be sure where we stood in the cycle at any given time once the expansion ultimately ends in the form of a recession. What we can do now is look at historical cycles and compare current economic and financial market data to what has preceded recessions in the past. In this Macro Monthly we discuss what the past tells us about where we currently are in the cycle, what could shorten or extend this cycle, and how we are positioning our portfolios based on these assessments.
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