Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2026: Timeless lessons for today’s investment challenges

Zurich, 3 March 2026 – Launched today by UBS Investment Bank and UBS Global Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Office, in partnership with Professor Paul Marsh and Dr. Mike Staunton of London Business School and Professor Elroy Dimson of Cambridge University, the latest edition of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook draws on more than 125 years of historical data. It provides an invaluable foundation for understanding the long-term evolution of global financial markets.

Some notable observations from the 2026 edition include the following:

• Global markets have been transformed since 1900. From a relatively balanced global equity market at the start of the 20th century, the US now dominates global equity capitalization, accounting for 62% of total world equity market value. This reflects strong long‑term equity returns and sustained equity issuance, even as the US share of global GDP has declined from mid‑century peaks.
• New technologies do not always generate bubbles, nor do bubbles necessarily imply weak long-term returns. Railroads, dominant in 1900 and now less than 1% of the US market, have still outperformed over the long run. Similarly, technology stocks – despite the dot-com collapse – delivered superior multidecade returns relative to the broader US market.
• Equities are the top-performing liquid asset. Since 1900, equities have outperformed bonds, bills and inflation across all countries with continuous investment histories. An initial investment of USD 1 in equities in 1900 grew to USD 124,854 in nominal terms by end 2025, compared with USD 284 for long bonds, and USD 69 for Treasury bills.
• Developed markets have outperformed over the long run. Since 1900, developed markets delivered higher annualized equity returns (8.5%) than emerging markets (6.9%). However, emerging markets outperformed over more recent periods, returning 10.9% per year from 1960 to 2025 compared with 9.6% for developed markets.
• Inflation has a key impact on long-term returns. Despite relatively low inflation in the US by global standards – averaging 2.9% per year since 1900 – this still means that USD 1 in 1900 had the same purchasing power as USD 38 today. When comparing returns over time or across countries, the focus should be on real, inflation-adjusted returns. The real returns from equities have resoundingly beaten inflation
• Gold’s role as an inflation hedge is nuanced. Gold delivered negative returns in 13 of the 28 years when inflation exceeded 3%, but over the very long run it has preserved purchasing power, with the real USD gold price rising 5.2‑fold since 1900, equivalent to an annualized real return of 1.3%. Gold has sometimes been effective as an equity market hedge.
• Economic risk has historically outweighed geopolitical risk. While extreme geopolitical events have coincided with some of the worst market outcomes since 1900, most large peacetime equity drawdowns were triggered by economic rather than geopolitical factors. Investors should look beyond short‑term geopolitical noise.
• New work on currency hedging shows benefits of reducing volatility. Currency risk on average added around 6 percentage points to total risk whether we focus on equities or bonds, although currency risk adds proportionally more to the risk of bond portfolios. This may explain the higher preponderance of hedging for fixed income portfolios.
• Diversification is becoming more challenging, but still works. Market concentration and rising correlations have increased the difficulty of diversification, yet historical evidence shows that global diversification and balanced equity‑bond portfolios have continued to reduce risk and drawdowns.

Dan Dowd, Head of Global Research, UBS Investment Bank, says: “The 2026 edition of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook reinforces the value of utilizing history to understand current market dynamics. With 126 years of data, it provides a powerful framework for understanding how asset allocation, diversification and the enduring principles of risk reward shape long term investment outcomes. This historical perspective is particularly important at a time when market concentration, technological change and geopolitical uncertainty are high.”

Mark Haefele, Chief Investment Officer, UBS Global Wealth Management, says: “The Global Investment Returns Yearbook reminds us that while markets and technologies evolve, the core principles of successful investing endure. History continues to show the importance of diversification, disciplined asset allocation and maintaining a long-term perspective.”

Professor Paul Marsh, London Business School, adds: “In periods of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, it can be easy to lose perspective of the long-term investment horizon. The Yearbook, with its database stretching back 126 years, provides a rich source of information and experience to help readers screen out the short-term noise and learn from the past to better invest for the future.”

UBS AG