Zurich/Basel, 28 January 2015 – In December, new car registrations climbed 20% compared to the previous month (seasonally adjusted). This is the highest December number since data collection began in 1995. In the past 20 years, there have only been five other months in which reported car sales were higher. Nevertheless, exuberance about the growth of private consumption would be premature, since higher carbon taxes for new car purchases came into force as of January 2015. It's likely, therefore, that many of these car purchases were made in advance of this deadline, so weaker car sales can be expected for early 2015.

The declining optimism in the retail sector is burdening the consumption indicator and curbing expectations for growth in private consumption. The consumer sentiment index dropped from 3 to –6 points in December, reflecting the pessimism felt by most retailers at the end of 2014 

Sources: Seco, UBS

How the UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated
The UBS Consumption Indicator signals private consumption trends in Switzerland with a lead time of about three months on the official figures. At roughly 60%, private consumption is by far the most important component of Swiss GDP. UBS calculates this leading indicator from five consumer-related parameters: new car registrations, business activity in the retail sector, the number of domestic overnight hotel stays by Swiss residents, the consumer sentiment index, and credit card transactions made via UBS at points of sale in Switzerland. With the exception of the consumer sentiment index, all of this data is available monthly.

 

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UBS publications and forecasts for Switzerland: www.ubs.com/cio-swiss-views

 

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