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A new world

The economic and political aftereffects of the global pandemic continue to reverberate, years after its onset. We are in a new world. It’s time to build a plan, get in balance, and stay disciplined, yet agile.

Executive summary

Never before in human history has a pandemic caused governments to forcibly and almost simultaneously shut down their economies and then shock them back to life. The result? The return of inflation, labor market stress, and a surge in interest rates, bond yields, and government debt. At the same time, wars in oil-producing regions, a maturing China, and the rise of national industrial and environmental policy are remaking the geopolitical sphere. And while the old threat of great powers at war seems to be returning, new developments in artificial intelligence (AI) might also transform humanity.

This leaves us in a new world, one defined by economic uncertainty and geopolitical and environmental instability, but also profound technological change.

Table of contents

Chapter 1 The Year Ahead

Discover our scenarios, key questions, and forecasts for 2024, plus take a look back at 2023.

Chapter 2 The Decade Ahead

Dive into the “Five Ds,” scenarios and key questions for the future, and our asset class expectations.

Chapter 3 Top investment ideas

Explore our Messages in Focus to learn about how we think you can add value to your portfolio.

Chapter 4 Getting in balance

Find out how we think investors can protect and grow their wealth for the year and decade ahead.

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This report has been prepared by UBS AG, UBS AG London Branch, UBS Switzerland AG, UBS Financial Services Inc. (UBS FS), UBS AG Singapore Branch, UBS AG Hong Kong Branch, and UBS SuMi TRUST Wealth Management Co., Ltd..