Max Anderl
Head of Concentrated Alpha Equity

US consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in 16 months. Higher energy prices will have a negative impact on households’ purchasing powers.

US Consumer Confidence Index

A chart showing consumer confidence level in United States for the last 16 months

The Consumer Confidence Index reflects prevailing business conditions and likely developments for the months ahead. This monthly report details consumer attitudes, buying intentions, vacation plans, and consumer expectations for inflation, stock prices, and interest rates. Index is rebased to 100 as at 1985.

US housing activity is starting to slow down due to higher financing costs

National Association of Homebuilders Housing Market Index

A chart showing National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index

US housing activity has slowed since November 2020, as shown by the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index

We are seeing signs of inflation of goods rolling over. Supply chain bottlenecks are easing based on the market indicators below.

 

World container freight benchmark vs. Baltic Dry Index

 A chart showing World Container Freight Benchmark versus the Baltic Dry Index from 2018-2022

World Container Freight Benchmark versus the Baltic Dry Index, both easing since the end of 2021.

ISM Supplier Deliveries Index

A chart showing ISM Supplier Deliveries Index in 2020 and 2021

ISM Supplier Deliveries Index for manufacturing and non manufacturing deliveries has been dropping since the end of 2021.

Ports of LA and Long Beach: no. of ships backed up

A chart showing ports of LA and Long Beach: no. of ships backed up in 2020 and 2021

Level of ships which are backed up in the ports of LA and Long Beach has dropped since the beginning of the year.

Used car prices

A chart showing used car prices from 1995 to 2020

Chart shows used car prices as shown by the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, starting to come down over the past month.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI): Central banks’ efforts to contain inflation are backward-looking and are reigniting fears of a recession

 

 

Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

A chart showing Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from May 2017 to May 2022

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been trending lower over the past year but remains in expansion.

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