ECB rate hike cycle: how will they start?

Despite guidance for a ‘gentle’ start to rate hikes, could economic conditions convince the European Central Bank to tighten monetary policy more aggressively?

Fixed income 15 Jul 2022 3 min read
Lionel Oster
Portfolio Manager - Fixed Income

Key highlights

  • Inflation in Europe had started to rise before Russia’s commodity shock.
  • The current weakness of the euro has been another factor that has been driving inflation higher.
  • ECB President Lagarde used the word ‘flexibility’ twelve times at their June conference, adding that the Council was prepared to use the flexibility given by their mandate on inflation.
  • The political landscape in Europe is likely to be supportive of the ECB taking action to tackle the rising inflation.
About the author

  • Lionel Oster

    Portfolio Manager - Fixed Income

    Lionel Oster is a Portfolio Manager in the Fixed Income team. He contributes to the management of a range of Currency and Global Sovereign strategies.

    Lionel joined UBS Asset Management in 2006. Prior to this he worked at F&C Asset Management for 10 years, most recently as head of the European government bond team.

    Lionel is a Regular Member of the UKSIP.

Related insights