Special Washington Update: Post Election Observations

Following last night’s elections, Democrats have broken Republicans’ one-party control in Washington. Likely motivated by the rising cost of living, the coalition of rural, and Hispanic and young voters who helped President Trump win his second term all moved away from Republicans in this year’s midterm elections. While most expected the House and Senate to flip, the margins are surprising. Heading into last night, speculation focused on states that President Trump won by low double digits such as Alaska, Ohio, and Texas. The story this morning is the strong Democratic overperformance in races that Trump won by 16 points or more such as Kansas, Mississippi, and South

The House.

Democrats easily regained control of the House last night, ending Republicans' four-year hold on the chamber. While a number of races have outstanding votes and have not yet been called, Democrats appear on track to win somewhere between 250 and 260 seats. Democrats were widely expected to regain control of the House, given the historical challenges the president’s party faces in midterm elections. However, the scale of their victory has exceeded expectations, with Democrats on track to secure their largest House majority since 2008. The large majority will prevent any drama in the Speaker’s race, and Democrats will have comfortable margins for passing legislation. President Trump will face a much less accommodating Congress over the final two years of his term, with Democrats likely to prioritize oversight of the administration and use their newfound leverage in negotiations on must-pass legislation.

The Senate.

Democrats accomplished something few predicted at the beginning of the election cycle: overcoming a difficult electoral map to regain control of the Senate. The party needed a net gain of four seats in states President Trump carried comfortably in 2024. Against this difficult backdrop, Democrats recaptured the Senate with ease and surpassed the expectations of even the most optimistic supporters. With races in Alaska and Mississippi still too close to call, it looks as though Democrats will end up with 54-56 seats, with 56 being the most likely outcome. The Trump administration will try to push any outstanding high-priority nominations in the lame duck with Senate Republicans aiming to advance a large package of nominees after Thanksgiving. The majority of the package will be judicial nominees and senior positions at Treasury and the Department of Justice. The lame-duck session will be the last chance to advance Supreme Court nominees, but the likelihood of success is low. Democratic gains have left them in a strong position to ensure they keep the majority following the 2028 elections and will have them wondering if they might even be able to capture a filibuster proof majority of 60 seats.

Important Trends.

One of the most notable takeaways from the 2024 elections was the inroads President Trump made with voter groups that historically had been more reliable supporters of Democrats, particularly Hispanic and younger voters. Last night's results demonstrated just how elastic those voters may be, as evidenced by decisive victories in Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina. For example, Democrat Henry Cuellar won by 35 points in a Rio Grand Valley district of Texas that Trump carried by 10 points in 2024. Both parties will now be studying the exit polling to determine if these are the new swing voters, if 2024 was an anomaly, or if both results are merely a reflection of their unhappiness with the government and they were casting their ballot against the party in power. Whichever party is able to more accurately analyze the results will have a head start on the 2028 presidential election.

Polling.

Perhaps the biggest question heading into Election Day was whether the polls would accurately capture the electorate, particularly given their well-publicized difficulties in several recent presidential elections. For the most part, they appear to have held up well, likely even slightly underestimating Democrats. There were plenty of surprises at the state and district levels, almost all in Democrats favor. This continues a recent pattern in which polling has generally performed better in midterm elections than in presidential contests, most notably those involving President Trump. It also suggests that the challenges pollsters have faced in capturing infrequent Republican voters may be less pronounced when he is not personally on the ballot. None of this means polling has solved all of its problems, but the results should provide some reassurance to campaigns, political observers, and others who rely on surveys to assess the political environment.

Dummymandering.

In Washington, there’s always the fear among both parties that when they redistrict their state to gerrymander it for their party, they may go too far and end up costing their own party seats on a very bad election night. This is referred to as a “Dummymander” and early results show that Republicans not only didn’t gain seats from their redistricting efforts but likely cost themselves several. Republicans hoped to gain 7-15 seats from new Congressional maps in Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Tennessee, Louisiana, and Alabama. Instead, Democrats look to be on pace to net a nine-seat gain from those states while successfully picking up all five newly drawn districts in California. Last night’s elections were a warning sign to both parties as they consider whether to redraw their maps next year. 

State Elections.

While congressional races dominated the headlines last night, elections for governor and state legislatures also resulted in significant changes to the political landscape. Heading into Election Day, Republicans controlled the governor's office and both legislative chambers in 23 states, while Democrats enjoyed similar one-party control in 16 states. Last night's results shifted that balance, with Democrats gaining full control of state government in Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin while also breaking the Republicans’ unified control in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. These changes are particularly important given the increasingly significant role states play in setting policy on AI, taxes, energy, and other issues. States with newly unified governments will have greater opportunities to advance their legislative priorities, while those moving to a divided government will face new constraints. With divided government in Washington likely to limit major federal legislation over the next two years, state capitals will remain an important arena for policymaking. Perhaps the most significant implications will be AI policy where federal action is not expected, but states will be at the forefront of crafting policy on AI safety, consumer protection, data centers, and employment policies.

2028 Preview.

The dust hasn’t yet settled on the 2026 elections, but attention is already beginning to turn toward the 2028 presidential race. For Democrats, one of the central questions will be what lessons the party takes from last night's results. Victories by progressive Senate candidates Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, and Troy Jackson in Maine will provide a boost to the party's left flank, which has long argued that more progressive candidates can win competitive general elections. The Michigan result is a significant victory for progressives given the state's importance in presidential elections. However, the results also may provide a counterargument for Democrats’ more traditional wing. Progressive candidates underperformed their more moderate Democratic counterparts, suggesting that Democrats may have left votes on the table by nominating progressive candidates. Conversely, Democrats’ strongest performances of the night were by more moderate candidates in Texas, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Kansas, and Georgia, all of whom shifted the electorate 20 points left compared to Trump’s 2024 margin. This debate will be one of the defining features of the Democratic presidential primary, which effectively started this week.

2026 Election Margins

The table below provides information on 2026 election margins, 2024 presidential margins and the current shift toward Democrats.

Lame-Duck Uncertainty.

Congress returns to Washington next week facing a crowded agenda, limited time, and a more challenging political environment following significant Republican losses in the midterm elections. The most immediate priority will be government funding, with the current stopgap measure set to expire on December 11. While another short-term funding extension into early next year remains possible, the prospect of a government shutdown has increased as Democrats may be reluctant to make concessions before taking control of Congress in January. Republicans, meanwhile, could face difficulties maintaining attendance among defeated and retiring members, further complicating efforts to advance legislation with their already narrow majorities. Other priorities facing deadlines include the annual defense authorization bill, farm legislation, expiring health care provisions, and federal highway and transportation programs. Republicans have also discussed another budget reconciliation bill addressing the debt ceiling and additional defense spending, however the election results and limited legislative calendar make such an effort increasingly difficult. Senate Republicans will also seek to accelerate judicial and administration confirmations before relinquishing control of the chamber. With Democrats having little incentive to negotiate major policy agreements before assuming control and Republicans facing growing challenges in advancing their agenda, the lame-duck session could prove contentious, with even must-pass legislation facing a difficult path forward.