Washington Weekly: Fragile Truce

The Senate confirmed Trump administration nominees and continued debate on a voting reform bill. It also passed legislation to repeal a Biden administration rule banning mining operations on federal lands in Northern Minnesota near the US-Canada border. The House passed a short-term extension for a contentious surveillance authority (see below) and a bill to extend temporary protected status for Haitians living in the US for three years. It also passed bills to eliminate a required Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) review for new federal construction projects and to prevent foreign pollution from affecting the EPA’s evaluation of a state’s compliance with federal air quality standards. Both chambers voted on, but failed to pass, Iran war powers resolutions.

The Senate will confirm Trump administration nominees and continue debate on a voting reform bill. The House will vote on a number of environmental and energy related bills.

Fragile Truce.

Despite a two-week ceasefire that began on April 8, the situation with the conflict in Iran has not materially improved. Fighting had shifted to Lebanon where Israel attacked Hezbollah (a terrorist group backed by Iran), though Lebanon and Israel agreed yesterday to a 10-day ceasefire. Between the US and Iran, there have been ultimatums and on-again, off-again direct and indirect negotiations for a more enduring peace deal. A key goal of the April 8 ceasefire was to open up the Strait of Hormuz (a key conduit for more than 20% of global oil and gas flows) that Iran effectively had shut down. Rather than allow Iran to collect “tolls” for traffic moving through the Strait, President Trump has sought to turn the tables by imposing a US naval blockade of the Strait. Today, President Trump and Iranian officials announced that the Strait would reopen for all commercial vessels, but it remains to be seen how durable that will be. With the return of Congress this week, Democrats continue to pressure Republicans with votes on war resolutions to rein in President Trump’s military campaign in Iran. The Senate voted down its fourth war powers resolution while the House narrowly failed to pass a resolution by two votes. President Trump would like to have a resolution before his visit with China’s leader Xi Jinping in mid-May (he previously had to reschedule the late March summit due to the Iran conflict). Today’s announcement increases optimism on the potential for a quick resolution and durable flow of oil and gas through the Strait, but there remains risk of setbacks.

DHS Funding Fight Continues.

The funding lapse for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) now stands at 62 days. Before breaking for a two-week recess, the Senate passed a bill that would fund DHS except for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP). Republican leadership opted for a vote on a bill to extend DHS funding for 60 days (a nonstarter in the Senate). House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has indicated that he would take up the Senate bill only after the Senate passed a narrowly tailored reconciliation bill focusing mainly on funding for ICE and CBP. A reconciliation bill would only require a majority to pass the Senate. Even so, several hurdles remain. First, there is frustration among some Senate Republicans over House Republicans’ conditions. Second, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is trying to resist efforts to expand the reconciliation bill’s scope to include other Republican priorities since that would slow down and complicate efforts. Lastly, there are Republican deficit hawks who want offsets for any ICE and CBP funding. Senate Republicans next week will try to pass the budget resolution, the first step in the reconciliation process.

FISA Reauthorization.

Congress faces an upcoming deadline to renew an intelligence-gathering authority, Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA). It gives the government authority to surveil foreign nationals located overseas. This surveillance sometimes can result in the collection of communications of Americans interacting with those targets. Due to this, FISA has been subject to significant congressional scrutiny. The current authority expires on Monday (April 20). FISA was last reauthorized in 2024. That bill included several reforms addressing privacy concerns. The Trump administration and Republican leadership have been pushing for an 18-month extension of the current program. However, House Democrats and a number of conservative House Republicans are against a clean extension. Conservative House Republicans want to add warrant requirements and enhanced criminal penalties for government employees who abuse FISA. Speaker Johnson was not able to get consensus among House Republicans, and the House instead passed a 10-day extension. The Senate passed the short-term extension today. Republican leadership will need to work with the White House to figure out an agreement that can pass both chambers.

Fed Uncertainty.

With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s term as chair set to expire in mid-May, the Senate Banking Committee will hold a hearing next week for the nomination of President Trump’s choice to replace Powell. The nominee, Kevin Warsh, was a former Fed governor from 2006 to 2011 and was widely rumored as a top contender for the job in President Trump’s first term. Warsh’s Senate confirmation process has been complicated by concerns about the impact of attacks on the Fed’s independence, in particular an ongoing criminal investigation by the Justice Department in connection with Powell’s testimony last year on the Fed’s renovation of its facilities. While a federal judge ruled against the DOJ in no uncertain terms, the Trump administration is continuing to pursue the effort. Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) generally supports Warsh’s nomination, but he has been steadfast in his position that he will not clear any Fed nominees until the threat of the DOJ’s investigation is lifted. Senator Tillis’s support within the Senate Banking Committee is crucial assuming all Democrats are opposed to Warsh’s nomination. Given that, it is unclear whether Warsh’s nomination will clear the Senate by the expiration of Powell’s term. If so, Powell would stay on as acting chair, though President Trump has threatened to fire Powell. A pending Supreme Court case (decision expected later this spring) on the President’s attempted firing of another Fed governor (Lisa Cook) will determine the lawfulness of that authority.

NATO Back at the Forefront. 

There have been reports that the Trump administration is exploring legal pathways for a potential withdrawal from NATO, reviving long‑standing questions about presidential authority, congressional oversight, and the durability of America’s security commitments. While no decision appears imminent, even the contemplation of an exit is enough to rattle allies and complicate US strategy at a moment of heightened global instability. On Capitol Hill, there will be bipartisan resistance from members who view NATO as central to US deterrence and fear that withdrawal would embolden adversaries while undermining allied support in crises. As with previous Trump-era NATO flare‑ups, the episode underscores how foreign policy uncertainty can quickly become a domestic political and legislative flashpoint. There are implications not only for alliance politics, but also Congress’s role in shaping the US’s place in the world.

More SALT?

As the calendar hits April, we often see lawmakers release tax proposals. This year was no different. One proposal by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) would double the state and local tax (SALT) deduction for married couples. Currently, the SALT deduction is capped at $40,400 (for 2026), up from a $10,000 cap, with an annual 1% increase and income limitations. The current law recognizes no difference between those filing as individuals or as married couples. Many view this as a “marriage penalty.” The SALT cap mostly hits Americans in high tax states like New Jersey, New York, and California. The increase in the cap in last year’s tax bill was seen as a significant increase and there currently isn’t enough pressure to increase the cap further at this time.

Supreme Court Retirement Watch.

The appointment of a Supreme Court justice can be an impactful legacy for a President. President Carter is the only president to serve a full term and not appoint any Supreme Court justices. In his first term, President Trump was able to appoint three. With four justices over 70 (and the two most reliably conservative justices over 75), Republicans are eager to ensure that their replacements happen under a Republican president and Senate. Rumors of a Supreme Court retirement don't usually take place until the party in power fears that they will lose it, but it is becoming more common for both parties to look to ensure they retain their ideological vote on the Supreme Court, even if the justices are non-partisan. A year ago it looked like Republicans would have the Senate locked up after the upcoming election, but polling and momentum has them on edge about the once unlikely possibility of Democrats retaking the Senate in 2027. As Democrats’ odds of retaking the Senate increase, expect nervous Republicans to begin telegraphing the need for one of the older conservative justices to step down.

Could California Go Red?

Democrats have been confronting an unthinkable risk in the nation’s bluest state: the risk of being locked out of California’s governor’s race altogether. The combination of a sprawling and fractured Democratic field and the state’s top‑two primary system creates a real, if still unlikely, path for two Republicans to advance to the general election ballot in November. For Democrats, the race has been marked by scandals, failed efforts to clear the field, split endorsements from labor groups, and other problems. While President Trump's endorsement of Steve Hilton (R-CA) and the departure of former Congressman Eric Swalwell (D-CA) likely push the needle in Democrats' favor for having a candidate make the top two in the primary, it's far from a guarantee. Beyond the governor’s race, Democrats fear a shutout would depress turnout, jeopardize some House seats, and blunt California’s role as a national counterweight to Republican power, raising the stakes well beyond a single statewide contest.