Flying has never been safer
Thanks to stricter regulatory requirements and new technologies, air traffic safety has improved significantly in recent decades. As long-term investors, we see exciting investment opportunities in the protection and safety segment.
Air travel was once again very safe in 2022: the number of fatal accidents in civil aviation remains on a downward trend. In fact, 2022 was one of the safest in the history of commercial civil aviation. According to the Aviation Safety Network, 12 accidents involving civil aircraft occurred worldwide, in which a total of 205 people tragically lost their lives.1
However, it should be noted that the most recent years were heavily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, according to the UN's International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), in 2019, airlines carried over 4.5 billion passengers worldwide –·more than 14 times as many as in 1970.2 Due to the outbreak of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020, passenger air travel temporarily came to a virtual standstill in many countries because of border closures and travel restrictions. The number of air passengers decreased by over 60% to around 1.8 billion, and most airlines saw huge revenue losses which forced them to lay off staff and restructure their companies.3 The situation has improved in subsequent years with the number of air passengers increasing to 2.3 billion in 2021 and 3.2 billion in 2022 – though that is still just around 74% of the 2019 volume.4 For 2023, the ICAO announced that it expects passenger numbers to be around 3% above the 2019 level by the end of the year. In 2024, demand could therefore be 4% higher than in 2019. The organization forecasts a “complete and sustainable recovery”.5
Figure 1 shows the number of flights since 2014. While there were almost 47 million flights in 2019, the number of flights fell to around 22 million a year later. Although air traffic has clearly recovered somewhat, it has not yet returned to pre-crisis levels: in 2022 there were 32 million flight movements, which is still just over 30% fewer than in 2019.
Figure 1: Number of flights in global aviation (2014–2022, in millions)
Figure 1: Number of flights in global aviation (2014–2022, in millions)
As mentioned earlier, civil airlines carried around 3.2 billion passengers last year – around a quarter fewer than in the pre-pandemic period. Figure 2 shows that in 2022 the number of passengers was still around eight times higher than in 1970. In the 1970s, the probability of dying in a plane crash averaged around 1:264,000; last year, however, that figure was 1:15,609,756. In other words, statistically speaking, flying was around 59 times safer in 2022 than it was back in the 1970s.6
Figure 2: Number of fatalities in commercial civil aviation and development of global passenger traffic flows since 1970
Figure 2: Number of fatalities in commercial civil aviation and development of global passenger traffic flows since 1970
The long-term decline in the number of fatalities has fluctuated for decades. Having reached a historical low in 2017, it was slightly higher in subsequent years; however, the trend shows that the number of people injured continues to fall.
What makes flying so safe?
What makes flying so safe?
Redundancy systems and aircraft maintenance are the key factors behind safe air travel: all important components – whether individual screws or complex systems – are built at least in duplicate and, in some cases, even in triplicate. This system of back-ups ensures that an aircraft can continue to function even if a particular part fails. Each individual component, however small, is specified precisely for its particular purpose and is certified and approved by the regulator. If it fails, it can only be replaced by an identical component: in other words, do-it-yourself solutions are not permitted.
Generally speaking, aircraft maintenance is a very time-consuming and often laborious process. Many components have a fixed service life and need to be replaced or completely refurbished at the end of each period. Importantly, this major effort ensures that the aircraft can be used safely over many years.7
Another main reason that flying is so safe is the fact that every aviation accident, near-miss, and irregularity is reported and investigated, with appropriate conclusions drawn once the causes have been determined. The belief that learning is a continuous, never-ending process is an important part of aviation safety culture. The result of this approach is that every incident makes air travel that much safer, as lessons are drawn from each incident. Alongside redundancy systems and maintenance, the main drivers of greatly improved aviation safety also include more reliable aircraft technology, continuous developments in airport infrastructure and air traffic control, as well as improvements in luggage, passenger, and freight controls.
Air traffic safety during COVID-19
Air traffic safety during COVID-19
Recent years have seen commercial air travel face particular challenges as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Protective and hygiene measures were brought in and fine-tuned to ensure the safest possible flight experience for passengers:8
- Hygiene and distancing rules were among the first measures to be brought in at airports. Where it is not possible to maintain social distancing at particular points in an airport (e.g. during security checks), wearing a mask is compulsory.
- Employees in close contact with customers are protected by infection prevention screens.
- Boarding and disembarking are organized in such a way that crowding can be avoided, and boarding now takes place primarily via passenger boarding bridges. If buses are nevertheless required, a greater number of vehicles are used.
- In addition to compulsory mask-wearing, the supply of fresh, continuously cleaned air to the cabin is another factor.9 This generally consists of 40% to 60% recirculated air and 60% to 40% external air, which enters the cabin via the engines.10 As Figure 3 shows, the volume of cabin air is replaced every three minutes or so. The airflow on board is mainly from top to bottom: the air is pumped through the ceiling into the cabin at a speed of one meter per second, then extracted again below the window seats.
- The recirculating air is cleaned using high-efficiency particulate arrestance (HEPA) filters (see Figure 3), which even remove micro-organisms (bacteria, viruses) with a diameter greater than 0.1 µm from the recirculating air. These particle filters are extremely efficient and can filter out up to 99.993% of all particles from the cabin air.11
Figure 3: How air circulates within an aircraft
A study by Harvard University on the effectiveness of ventilation systems in aircraft shows that the probability of contracting the COVID-19 infection is low if passengers wear masks and disinfect their hands frequently.12 Nonetheless, experts point out that the systems cannot fully protect against infection. HEPA filters can only clean the particles that actually pass through them.13 In our view, these additional measures nevertheless make a significant contribution to keeping the risk of infection as low as possible, thanks to good ventilation.
Technological advances to further improve travel safety
Technological advances to further improve travel safety
It is often said that the most dangerous part of flying is the drive to the airport: the chance of having a fatal accident on the road is 1:15,000, whereas the likelihood of a plane crash is 1:30 million.14 If we compare the different modes of transport in terms of "deaths per passenger kilometer", it becomes clear just how safe flying is, with 0.003 fatalities for every one billion kilometers flown. This compares with 2.9 deaths for every one billion kilometers traveled by car, 30 by bicycle, and 53 by motorcycle. At 0.03, even trains are somewhat more dangerous than airplanes. Only ships are safer than airplanes, causing 0.00001 deaths per billion kilometers.15
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published a slightly different statistical view: based on the 2022 data, the risk of death with air travel (industry fatality risk) is 0.11. This means that, on average, a person would need to take a flight every day for 25,214 years to experience a 100% fatal accident.16
Thanks to stricter regulatory requirements and the use of new technologies, air traffic safety has improved significantly in recent decades. We believe that technological change is set to continue across the mobility space over the coming decades. Safety will be central, because without it the technology will lose the support of both regulators and society. As long-term investors, we see exciting investment opportunities in the protection and safety segment, particularly in testing, certification and inspections, anti-collision systems, radar, and navigation systems.
1 Aviation Safety Network (2023), https://aviation-safety.net/database/dblist.php?Year=2022, 24.04.2023.
2 ICAO (2019): The world of air transport in 2019, https://www.icao.int/annual-report-2019/Pages/the-world-of-air-transport-in-2019.aspx, 27.04.2023.
3 ICAO (2020): The world of air transport in 2020, https://www.icao.int/annual-report-2020/Pages/the-world-of-air-transport-in-2020.aspx#:~:text=Scheduled%20international%20freight%20capacity%20in,increased%20to%2057%20per%20cent, 27.04.2023.
4 ICAO (2021): The world of air transport in 2021, https://www.icao.int/sustainability/WorldofAirTransport/Pages/the-world-of-air-transport-in-2021.aspx#:~:text=According%20to%20ICAO%27s%20preliminary%20compilation,a%2019.2%20per%20cent%20increase, 27.04.2023. German Aviation Association (2023): Wie sicher war Luftverkehr im Jahr 2022? [How safe was air travel in 2022?], https://www.bdl.aero/de/publikation/wie-sicher-war-luftverkehr-im-jahr-2022/, 27.07.2023.
5 ICAO (2023): ICAO forecasts complete and sustainable recovery and growth of air passenger demand in 2023, 08.02.2023, https://www.icao.int/Newsroom/Pages/ICAO-forecasts-complete-and-sustainable-recovery-and-growth-of-air-passenger-demand-in-2023.aspx, 27.04.2023.
6 In 2019 this statistical figure was 1 to 16 million. In other words, taking a flight had become around 61 times safer than it was back in the 1970s (source: German Aviation Association (2020): Luftfahrt aktuell #1/2020: Fakten und Hintergründe zum deutschen Luftverkehr [Aviation Today #1/2020: Facts and background on German aviation], January 2020, p. 1).
7 Airliners.de (2022): So sicher ist Fliegen [How safe flying really is], https://www.airliners.de/antworten-cockpit-15-fliegen/37718, 27.04.2023.
8 German Aviation Association (2020): Was macht Luftverkehr in Corona-Zeiten sicher? [What makes aviation safe in the COVID-19 era?], https://www.bdl.aero/de/publikation/was-macht-luftverkehr-in-corona-zeiten-sicher/, 26.04.2023.
9 A study by the US agency Centers for Disease Control Prevention (CDC) confirms the importance of wearing face masks and of ventilation system during flights. For the study, researchers examined a long-distance flight from Dubai (United Arab Emirates) to Auckland (New Zealand). During the flight, four passengers were infected by one or two people who had already been infected before they boarded the aircraft. Two of the infected passengers had not worn face masks during the flight (source: CDC (2021): Genomic evidence of in-flight transmission of SARS-CoV-2 despite predeparture testing, March 2021, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/3/20-4714_article, 26.04..2023.
10 Fraunhofer Institut (2023): Luftqualität in der Flugzeugkabine [Air quality in the aircraft cabin], https://www.ibp.fraunhofer.de/de/kompetenzen/umwelt-hygiene-sensorik/luftqualitaet-im-innenraum/luftqualitaet-in-der-flugzeugkabine.html, 26.04.2023.
11 IATA (2023): Cabin air and low risk of on-board transmission, https://www.iata.org/en/youandiata/travelers/health/low-risk-transmission/, 28.04.2023.
12 Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health (2020): Assessment of risks of SARS-CoV-2 transmission during air travel and non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce risk, https://cdn1.sph.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/2443/2020/10/HSPH-APHI-Phase-One-Report.pdf
, 28.04.2023.
13 DW (2021): Faktencheck: Wie groß ist die Ansteckungsgefahr im Flugzeug? [Fact check: What's the infection risk in an aircraft?], : https://www.dw.com/de/faktencheck-wie-gro%C3%9F-ist-die-ansteckungsgefahr-im-flugzeug/a-57310652, 26.04.2023.
14 SPIEGEL Panorama (2019): What a coach recommends against the fear of flying[Was ein Coach gegen Flugangst empfiehlt], https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/flugangst-die-autofahrt-zum-airport-ist-gefaehrlicher-als-der-flug-a-1261895.html, 25.05.2023.
15 Flüge.de (2023): So sicher ist fliegen [How safe flying really is], https://www.xn--flge-1ra.de/ratgeber/infografik-sichere-verkehrsmittel-wie-sicher-ist-fliegen/, 27.04.2023.
16 IATA (2023): IATA releases 2022 airline safety performance, 07.03.2023, https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2023-releases/2023-03-07-01/, 27.04.2023.
About the author
Dr. Patrick Kolb
Senior portfolio manager, Thematic Equities
Patrick Kolb (PhD), Managing Director, has been a Senior Portfolio Manager for the Security Equity strategy since 2007. In 2005, he joined Credit Suisse Asset Management, now part of UBS Group, where he initially focused on the industrials and technology sectors. Patrick graduated from the University of Zurich with a major in Finance and then worked as a research assistant at the Institute of Banking and Finance at the University of Zurich before earning his PhD in Financial Economics.
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