Q4 2023 equity market outlook
Five charts on attractive opportunities, US equity valuation and unsustainable low saving rates
Five charts on the key equity market drivers (Q4 2023)
Five charts on the key equity market drivers (Q4 2023)
Global Concentrated Alpha outlook summary:
- In our Q3 equity market update, we stated that the market was ignoring risks in the first half of the year, but - despite a positive July - there is more appreciation for interest rates remaining higher for longer amongst investors
- The question is how much longer the US economy could remain supportive and the US consumer spending
- As a result, we see more attractive opportunities in defensive sectors
- Equity valuations in the US seem extended despite no earnings growth, while rest of world looks more supportive
Figure 1: The pandemic has significant impacts on personal income and consumption
Figure 1: The pandemic has significant impacts on personal income and consumption
Figure 2: The savings rate is abnormal low after pandemic-related volatility
Figure 2: The savings rate is abnormal low after pandemic-related volatility
Figure 3: European cyclicals vs Defensives relative and PMI
Figure 3: European cyclicals vs Defensives relative and PMI
Figure 4: S&P 500 12m Fwd. P/E
Figure 4: S&P 500 12m Fwd. P/E
Figure 5: MSCI US 12m Fwd. EPS
Figure 5: MSCI US 12m Fwd. EPS
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