As we enter 2024, the questions on the top of investors’ minds center around whether history will repeat itself: Will the former president be the next president? Will the Fed cause another recession? Will we face a new deficit crisis? Will AI be as transformative as the internet? Can China break through the middle income trap? Will the new normal for interest rates be like the old normal?

In our outlook for the year ahead, as well as laying out our scenarios for growth, inflation, rates, and geopolitics, we detail how investors should think about putting money to work in fixed income as interest rates approach a peak, highlight our top picks in equity markets for 2024, and spotlight our calls across alternatives, currencies, and commodities. We also look further ahead, considering the potential scenarios for the decade ahead, the longer-term outlook for returns across asset classes, how to navigate a maturing Chinese economy, and how to successfully invest amid technological disruption.

Markets are moving fast, in some ways which may seem familiar and in others which may feel new. In the Year Ahead 2024, we provide an actionable path forward for investors—whether history proves to repeat, rhyme, or change course entirely.

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