(UBS)
Temporary shutdown ends
Congress was able to put an end to a short partial government shutdown this week. Last week, the Trump administration and Senate Democrats reached an agreement for the Senate to pass a five-bill government funding package and a two-week funding extension for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). The short-term punt on DHS funding is intended to provide some time for further negotiations over reforms to immigration enforcement. The Senate passed those bills on Friday, but a partial shutdown still went into effect on Saturday since the House had to vote on the new Senate agreement. When the House returned this week, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) had to tamp down opposition from some on his right flank who agitated for an election bill that is a non-starter in the Senate (see below). With little room for error, he was able to convince many of those Republicans to vote for a procedural measure to advance the package. He then relied on 21 Democratic votes for final passage of the government funding package (21 Republicans voted against the package, in part over the separation of the DHS funding bill). With a razor-thin majority and an unruly caucus, there are few easy votes for Speaker Johnson.
DHS deal in limbo.
With the vast majority (96%) of the federal government funded for the remainder of the fiscal year, the focus now turns to the DHS funding and immigration enforcement reforms. The DHS bill provides temporary funding for agencies that handle border security (CBP) and immigration enforcement (ICE), disaster relief (FEMA), transportation security (TSA), cybersecurity (CISA), and maritime security (the Coast Guard). Democratic leadership this week released a list of demands on reforms including mandatory use of body cameras, a ban on masks, requirements for judicial warrants for entering private property, new use-of-force standards, standardized uniforms and equipment, and no enforcement at medical facilities, schools, churches, courts, and polling places. Democrats are also calling for the removal of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. While many of these demands are non-starters for Republicans, Democrats are hoping that demands prompt negotiations with President Trump. However, with temporary funding set to expire a week from today, there will need to be quick progress. Already, there are questions about the need for another temporary funding extension, which would be difficult to pass in either chamber. If funding lapses, FEMA, TSA, CISA, and the Coast Guard will be more affected than border security and immigration enforcement (CBP and ICE), since the latter received additional funding in last year’s Republican tax bill. With both parties at odds, a temporary shutdown for the DHS is likely.
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