The end of the year is approaching, meaning it’s time to think about resolutions for 2026. According to a survey commissioned by online retailer Galaxus in 2023, this is done by around 60% of Swiss people, with resolutions related to nutrition and sports the most common. But four of 10 people in Switzerland also make New Year’s resolutions regarding their finances.
Get yourself (and your money) in shape: Investing instead of saving
Saving more or even saving in general often pops up as a resolution. However, this does not sound particularly appealing with savings interest rates close to 0%. This rate is unlikely to change much in the new year, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its key interest rates at 0% at its quarterly assessment on 11 December.
A trade agreement with the US, which will reduce US import tariffs from 39% to 15%, is likely to reduce the biggest downside risks for the Swiss economy, but even the new US tariff still poses a burden for the export industry. While this situation argues against negative policy interest rates in the new year, we also see little scope for a rate hike. A low SNB policy rate means low savings rates as well.
We therefore think “Investing” makes a better New Year’s resolution than “Saving.” Taking inflation and taxes into account, Swiss equities have delivered an average annual return of around 3.5% over the past 75 years, while bonds have lost 0.3% and savings accounts 0.7% per year.
Improve resilience: Don’t be intimidated by politics
This year was marked by geopolitical and economic policy uncertainty: Switzerland was affected by trade negotiations with the US, while the geopolitical situation in Ukraine and Europe remains fragile as the year draws to a close. These are unlikely to fade next year, in our view. Naturally, the question arises whether one should really invest in such an environment.
However, this year has also shown that financial markets have proven relatively robust in the face of political surprises. For example, equity markets in Switzerland, the Eurozone, and the US are higher today than at the beginning of the year—despite geopolitical and economic policy turbulence.
While political disruptions often only influence markets in the short term, economic turbulence such as recessions have longer-lasting effects. Investors can cushion geopolitical impacts with a diversified portfolio.
Don’t let opportunities pass by
Uncertainty prevails not only in politics, but it extends to the technology sector and whether it’s high valuations signal a bubble. While this is a risk, it is significantly smaller than it was 25 years ago during the dotcom era, as we outlined in the “CIO Essentials” September edition.
Furthermore, the long-term potential of artificial intelligence should not be overlooked. For example, ChatGPT has quadrupled its weekly active users to 800 million within a year. Integration in the corporate world is also progressing. Almost 45% of US companies now have paid subscriptions for AI applications, compared to around 25% at the beginning of the year. We see potential for equity prices to rise in 2026: around 5% for the Swiss Market Index (SMI) and around 10% for the global equity index MSCI AC World. In particular, we consider technology stocks in the US and China to be attractive investments for the coming year.
Turning resolutions into habits: Invest regularly
Making New Year’s resolutions is relatively easy, but sticking to them over the long term is much more challenging. Studies show that by the end of January, motivation to keep up with new resolutions drops significantly, and people fall back into old behavior patterns.
The psychologist Wendy Wood advises turning resolutions into habits, with simple rules and clear regularity, to break old patterns. Translated to the world of financial markets, this means: Invest regularly!
