(UBS)
The House has not been in session for 49 days. In the Senate, there have been bipartisan discussions among groups of Senators to try to find an off-ramp. As it has in previous weeks, the Senate also held votes on the House-passed funding bill. Republican leadership plans to vote today on a new package that would extend government funding to a later date (likely January). It also would include three full-year spending bills (Agriculture-FDA, Military Construction-VA and Legislative Branch) already passed by the Senate with bipartisan support in August. However, it is unlikely that this will reach the needed 60 vote procedural threshold since it does not have an extension of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies expiring at the end of the year that Democrats want.
Nevertheless, pressure is mounting on lawmakers to take action. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits for low-income families are only being partially paid, while an additional supplemental nutritional program targeted at supporting children is about to run out of funds. The Federal Aviation Administration is ordering a reduction of 4% of flights starting today with an increase of 1% each day till it reaches 10% at 40 high-traffic airports. With the impacts from the shutdown continuing to grow, there remains quiet optimism that a solution is close and next week could finally see the government reopen.
Nuking the Filibuster. Despite renewed calls from President Trump this week to invoke the nuclear option of eliminating the Senate filibuster, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) dismissed the idea as a nonstarter given that there was not sufficient support among Republicans. The filibuster has been a target of both sides in recent years. Democrats voted, but failed to pass, filibuster reform in 2022. President Trump also has thrown out the idea of ending the filibuster in the past. Majorities of voters in both parties support its removal. Nevertheless, many Senators continue to value the filibuster. It remains one of the few remaining tools of the minority party. Removing the filibuster also undermines the power of individual Senators and would eliminate perhaps the key feature that makes the Senate distinctive from the House, which can pass legislation through a simple majority. The filibuster doesn’t look like it will be going anywhere in the near future, but it’s far from certain that it has permanent staying power and may suffer from gradual erosion rather than one dramatic elimination.
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