Video: Favor commodities: Further upside for gold, silver & oil
Precious metals
Precious metals have had an exceptionally strong run in 2025 as political and economic uncertainty drove “safe-haven” demand. A late-2025 consolidation was unsurprising after such a rapid rally, but we see further upside to gold and silver in 2026. Gold remains a valuable hedge, supported by central bank buying, large fiscal deficits, and ongoing geopolitical risks. Silver also benefits from rising demand in electronics and photovoltaics.
Energy
Oil prices have lagged other commodities in 2025 amid slower-than-expected demand growth and ample supply from the Americas. That said, we expect a combination of stalling supply growth in non-OPEC+, and a modest demand recovery to push prices meaningfully higher from mid-2026. Energy commodities can also offer a hedge against geopolitical shocks, especially in the Middle East.
Industrial metals
Industrial metals performed well in 2025, especially copper, which benefited from supply disruptions linked to operational, geopolitical, and environmental issues. Looking ahead to 2026, both copper and aluminum are projected to encounter further supply shortages that may push prices higher. The global transition to clean energy and electrification continues to drive demand for these metals, making them a key structural investment.
Agriculture and livestock
After a year of poor performance, we believe agricultural commodities offer a compelling entry point. Ongoing tightness in cocoa and coffee, and emerging weather-related risks in grains could drive higher prices over the year ahead. Investors should consider agriculture for its improving fundamentals and low correlation to economic cycles. For livestock, record-low female cattle numbers and shrinking hog margins in the US are supportive for prices.
