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Daily update

  • The US releases the first guess of third-quarter GDP—less than half the data used in the final estimate is available today. Recent UK and European GDP revisions have changed their growth narratives in recent years. Historically, first estimates are revised over one percentage point (up or down), so today’s number is not precise.
  • GDP should show middle-income US households supporting a soft landing scenario. However, economic experiences within the US are increasingly divergent. Homeowners fare better than renters. Consumers in Florida face far higher inflation than in New York. These differences from the average represented by GDP may matter politically.
  • The ECB meets. Fifty one out of fifty one surveyed economists expect no change in policy (and that many economists could not possibly be wrong). We have, obviously, heard a lot from ECB President Lagarde of late—it is doubtful whether the press conference will change perceptions.
  • US President Biden warned China not to attack the Philippines, which might focus international attention on the region. The US House of Representatives has finally elected someone as speaker. The current speaker has to negotiate a deal between different Republican views in the house and the Democrat-controlled senate to keep the government open.

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