UBS Investor Forum

Challenging the UBS House View

Every month, we invite global investment leaders from the fund management industry to challenge our UBS House View. We address global financial questions to make sure we never sin through over-confidence.

Global investment leaders share their views at the UBS Investor Forum

Recession risk, effectiveness of central bank policies, and possible impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy were the key topics discussed at the latest Investor Forum.

Outside View

  • Overall participants are cautious in a slowing growth global environment. There was a consensus that a recession is not likely to happen in 2019 or 2020, but they generally believe the possibility of a recession has increased.
  • However, participants thought that although generally monetary policy has become less effective, the fiscal debate may change the game, and the market is not yet positioned for that. Some participants point out that monetary policies protect against downside risks, but the upside is also limited by structural growth concerns.
  • Participants see opportunities arising from fiscal stimulus as idiosyncratic but real, for example in India, and selectivity as key to benefit from the current situation. They also expect more governments in Asia to move towards fiscal expansion.

UBS House View

  • We believe that Fed easing and strong consumer demand can help avert a 2020 US recession. But risks are tilted to the downside amid escalating trade tensions. Unless the US and China de-escalate, we see limited upside for stocks over the short term.
  • The ECB has eased policy, but monetary policy may be approaching the limits of effectiveness. Against this backdrop we remain underweight equities and prefer US to Eurozone stocks within international developed market stocks. We favor carry strategies in credit and foreign exchange markets.

Podcast #009

Jeremy Lawson, Aberdeen Standard & Vincent Mortier, Amundi

Monetary policy and possible fiscal stimulus.

11:11

This is the Global Investor Forum, where each month we invite some of the world's top fund managers to UBS to debate the outlook for the economy and markets. Today, Mark Haefele, Global Chief Investment Officer, discusses diminishing monetary policy effectiveness and the possible impact of fiscal stimulus on the economy with Vincent Mortier, deputy CIO at Amundi, and Jeremy Lawson, Chief Economist at Aberdeen Standard.

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