UBS consumption indicator: Solid private consumption in 2018
At 1.67 points, the UBS consumption indicator was above its long-term average in November, indicating solid consumption growth in 2018. Thanks to solid economic growth, private consumption will likely continue expanding despite rising inflation.
Zurich, 27 Dezember 2017 – The consumption indicator fell slightly in November, to 1.67 from 1.68 points. Values from previous months were revised upward by a significant margin in response to surprisingly strong summertime growth in overnight stays. New car registrations gained 1.3% in November, slightly below the average established in previous months.
Looking ahead to 2018, UBS Chief Investment Office Wealth Management expects consumption to grow 1.3%. Solid economic growth and moderately rising employment should continue to support private consumption. Rising inflation has, however, adversely affected real wage growth and, by extension, private consumption growth. Moreover, third-quarter employment growth still remains below the long-term average of 1.1%, only reaching 0.5%.