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Opportunities in emerging markets
Are emerging markets vulnerable to US and developed world central bank policy, or are they backed by sufficiently powerful secular forces to suggest that the benign environment of the past year may only be the start of a longer-term positive trend, underpinned by strengthening commodity prices and stabilizing global growth?
Low yields have presented a significant challenge to investors for a number of years. We see a moderate US-led reflation which is slow and expect inflation and interest rates to reach levels well below the average of past recovery peaks. While global growth is likely to pick up, yields are still at low or negative levels and we expect them to stay low in Europe and Japan in the foreseeable future.
Monetary policy is overburdened on a global scale. Exiting from ultraaccommodative monetary policy is a delicate balancing act and implies a re-pricing of assets which have reached unsustainable valuations.
We think this new phase – coupled with political uncertainties around the concrete implementation path of the Trump administration’s policies, forthcoming elections in some key European countries, and the many unresolved geopolitical conflicts, including the global migration crisis – will be characterized by sudden manifestations of tail risk and eruptions of higher volatility.
Strategies in Focus
We devote significant time and resource to analyzing the economic and financial market trends that are the key drivers of asset prices. Macroeconomic and market views, as well as behavioral analysis, play an important role in our investment strategy setting process.
On the following pages, we outline our analysis of the global economy and assess the attractiveness of the different asset classes in