Forging ahead

The world is experiencing a fourth industrial revolution, with technological change and geopolitical upheaval challenging economic assumptions. President Trump’s trade policies have given rise to economic nationalism, creating uncertainty linked both to the policies themselves and the unpredictable nature of his administration’s decision making. Geopolitics is testing the resilience of markets as the situation in the Middle East evolves and the war in Ukraine continues unabated.

The key questions for the second half of this year focus on inflation, growth and how central bank policy will respond. The extent to which the rest of the world can detach from the US matters not just to growth, but also to considering the role of the US dollar in international finance. As a relatively open economy, Australia will be impacted economically by the changes underway.

Our experts - featuring Paul Donovan, Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management and Andrew McAuley, Chief of Investments, UBS Global Wealth Management Australia - will explore these themes and more. We’re also honoured to welcome Major General Paul Symon AO (Retd), former Director-General of ASIS, who will share insights on global security and the challenges Australia faces.

This year’s Mid-Year Outlook is your opportunity to assess market conditions, explore forward-looking investment strategies, and strengthen portfolio resilience in a rapidly evolving world.

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Speaker biographies

Major General Paul Symon, AO

Major General
Paul Symon, AO

Director-General Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) 2017- 2022

Paul was schooled in Melbourne at Scotch College. In 1979 he attended the Royal Military College Duntroon, graduating in 1982 as senior cadet and Sword of Honour winner.
A 35-year military career followed his graduation Duntroon, culminating in the rank of Major General. Paul commenced his officer role in Royal Australian Artillery and progressed the through the officer ranks with appropriate leadership roles. He was identified by the Army as an excellent leader, a well-considered thinker and excellent communicator. His final appointments in Defence were as Deputy Chief of the Army and Director of the Defence Intelligence Organisation.
As a Brigadier, in 2006 Paul was appointed Australian Commander Middle East. This gave him national command responsibility for all personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Prior to that, in 2003, he was senior military adviser for the Regional Assistance Mission in the Solomon Islands (RAMSI). Paul was also appointed Australia’s senior military officer in East Timor in the months preceding the ballot for East Timor’s independence in 1999. His team found themselves negotiating with senior militia and Falantil, as well as the Indonesian military, during a period of high tension and duress.
Prior to that, he served with the United Nations in Southern Lebanon and on the Golan Heights.
Paul was awarded the Medal of the Order of Australia (AM) for his service in East Timor. He subsequently became a recipient of the Officer of the Order of Australia (AO).
Paul holds two Master’s degrees. One from the University of New South Wales and one from Deakin University.
In mid-2015, Paul left the military and joined the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. He was subsequently appointed as Director-General of the Australian Secret Intelligence Service (ASIS) from 18th December 2017, apposition he held until his retirement in 2022.
ASIS is Australia's foreign intelligence collection agency. It collects and distributes secret foreign intelligence, information which would be otherwise unavailable to Australia, to protect Australia and its interests. ASIS obtains its intelligence from foreign sources, outside Australia's borders. To do this, ASIS relies on "human intelligence" - information that comes directly from people.
Paul’s background in both leadership roles and in Australia’s Secret Intelligence Service makes him uniquely qualified to pass commentary on Australia’s social, economic, and political standing. He is perfectly qualified to identify current and potential threats to our way of life. Most importantly Paul knows what we must do to protect ourselves politically and economically when there are so many threats from outsiders through numerous avenues of assault.

Paul Donovan

Paul Donovan

Chief Economist, UBS Global Wealth Management

Paul is the Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management. He is a member of the Global Investment Committee, and (despite being told to stop studying art at the age of twelve) sits on the UBS Art Board. He is a UBS Opinion Leader, and a member of UBS Pride. He participates in the UBS Nobel Perspectives program and is a supporter of the UBS Women in Economics program.

Paul is responsible for developing and presenting the UBS economic outlook, marketing the UBS view on economics, policy and politics around the world. He regularly appears in the print and broadcast media, and is a reluctant Tweeter on economic issues. Paul started at UBS Investment Bank as an intern in 1992, and was Global Economist before moving to Global Wealth Management in August 2016.

Paul has an MA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University. He is an Honorary Fellow of St Anne’s College, Oxford, sitting on its investment committee and development board, and is a member of the Vice-Chancellor’s Circle of Oxford. He holds an MSc in Financial Economics from the University of London. Paul sits on the Research Advisory Board of Open for Business, and is part of the World Economic Forum’s Chief Economists’ Community. Paul is also a co-founder of the Peter Culverhouse Memorial Trust (a cancer research and patient care charity). He is an amateur heavyweight boxer, plays at being a farmer (with sheep, apples, and pears), and is a keen skier.

Paul co-authored “From Red to Green? How the financial credit crunch could bankrupt the environment” with Julie Hudson, published in August 2011. “Food Policy and the Environmental Credit Crunch: From Soup to Nuts”, also co-authored with Julie, was published in September 2013. Paul contributed to “How the world really works: the economy”, a children’s guide to economics published in May 2014. His book "The Truth About Inflation" was published in April 2015, with a Spanish language version published in September 2018. His latest book "Profit and Prejudice: The Luddites of the Fourth Industrial Revolution" looking at the increasing economic risks arising from prejudice was published in November 2020.

Andrew McAuley

Andrew McAuley

Chief of Investments, UBS Global Wealth Management Australia

Andrew McAuley is Managing Director, UBS Global Wealth Management. Andrew has been part of the Australian investment team for 17 years. He is responsible for developing, articulating and delivering investment strategies across multi asset class portfolios for clients in Australia. He is also Chair of the Australian Investment Committee.

Andrew has been investing on behalf of clients for over 27 years and was the founder of the Credit Suisse Discretionary Portfolio Management service in Australia, which has consistently delivered strong performance for clients. He has managed single and multi-asset class portfolios for major superannuation funds, institutions, ultra-high net worth individuals, not for profits and private clients.

Andrew is a Chartered Accountant. He holds an Economics degree from the University of Sydney and a Graduate Diploma in Applied Finance and Investment from the Finance and Securities Institute of Australia.

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