In a conversation with UBS Asset Management, Noble Laureate Sir Christopher Pissarides gave his views on how the global economy will recover from COVID-19.
What do you think?
Will we see a U, V or W recovery?
The economic recovery post COVID-19 will be
What Sir Christopher Pissarides thinks
If we start seeing the opening up of economies it could be a W-shaped recovery, where we come out of the lockdown and the economy starts growing and then the virus comes back, and we see a double dip.
I don’t see a U-shaped recovery, staying at the bottom of the curve for a long time and then going up, if you look at the current infection rate levels. Lockdowns in Europe especially were successful. Governments will want to relax lockdown restrictions soon to support the economy but in my opinion this is too soon.
I therefore believe it will be a V or W shape recovery curve, depending on the trajectory of the virus. It is unlikely that after opening-up the economy will crawl along the bottom for long.
What's the next normal post COVID-19?
Sir Christopher Pissarides
And labor market economist was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 2010 for his work on the economics of unemployment, including job flows and the effects of being out of work.
Prior to that, in 2005, he became the first European economist to win the IZA Prize in Labor Economics.
When I realized there were people who wanted jobs but couldn’t get them even though companies were hiring, it became obvious there was a great lack of understanding of the problem and what could be done about it.
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