China equities outlook Bin Shi: COVID-19 has not changed the investment playbook for China

Bin Shi, Head of China equities shared with us five investment nuggets on investing in China as it steers out of the pandemic.

28 May 2020

5 investment nuggets on investing in China post COVID-19

  1. China's economy is on the right track to recovery
  2. China's companies delisting from the US is a manageable risk
  3. US-China tension has moved beyond trade
  4. Second wave of COVID-19 outbreak will not be in the same magnitude as the first
  5. COVID-19 has not changed the investment playbook for China

 

China equities outlook 1. China’s economy is on the right track to recovery

China's economy is certainly improving, but we have yet to return to pre-crisis levels.

Proxy indicators like traffic congestion levels may suggest a recovery since they are higher than last year. However, the roads are more crowded because people are social distancing and avoiding public transport.

So it is important to remain cautious about the outlook but we feel confident that the economy is on the right track to recovery, although it may take some time to get there.

Degree of congestion in 46 large cities

Source: AlphaWise, Morgan Stanley Research, as of 30 April 2020

China equities outlook 2. China companies delisting from US exchanges is a manageable risk

Delisting has been discussed a few times previously and the Equitable Act was a subject of debate last year too. We think this is a manageable risk as, even if it were to go ahead, it would take a few years to be implemented, and companies have time to react.
 
In a bad case scenario, Chinese companies will get delisted after three years of non-compliance. By then, most of the ADRs should be able to list in HK. Hong Kong would benefit from increased flows. Alibaba has already listed in HK last year, in addition to their ADR in the US, and other companies are preparing similar plans. 
 
While this might mean that a subset of US investors might no longer be able to buy these stocks – southbound investors from China would now have access to them through the Stock Connect programs.

In a good case scenario, delisting is more of a national security and disclosure issue and an agreement can be reached between the US' SEC and China's CSRC on audit procedures.

Subscribe now

Perspectives matter. Tune in to our insights.

China equities outlook 3. US-China trade tension has moved beyond trade

US-China tensions are likely going to be around for a long time and these have moved beyond trade to technology, capital markets and more. In addition, it is not unusual to expect the current US administration to be tough towards China in the run-up to the US elections in November.
 
Current tensions are also related to the COVID-19 outbreak and we are seeing some of the blame for COVID-19 being put on China, and that is creating a lot of bad sentiment.
 
We expect tensions to continue at least up to the elections, and that will likely create more volatility in the market.

China equities outlook 4. Second wave of COVID-19 outbreak will not be in the same magnitude as the first

The first wave of COVID-19 for China was an out-of-the-blue event, much like an earthquake. The world wasn't much prepared for it either or clear about what to do to handle the situation.
 
Now I believe people and government authorities are much better prepared than they were before and will have a more effective way of handling any outbreaks in the future. As such, I believe a second wave of similar magnitude to the first is highly unlikely.

China equities outlook 5. COVID-19 has not changed the investment playbook for China

With most of China in lockdown in the first quarter of this year, China’s GDP growth dropped significantly. China has also not set an explicit target for 2020. 

Does this change the playbook for investing in China equities?

Not really.

In many ways the decision to not set an explicit target is a prudent response to deal with the post COVID-19 world. Setting a GDP target will mean that the central government has to give growth targets to local governments. This runs the risk of local officials rushing to enact policies to achieve their given goals which may not be good for the economy in the long run.

For me and my team, we don't really focus too much on GDP numbers because the long-term fundamental trends in China remain intact. Despite the disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, themes like urbanization, premiumization (lifestyle upgrading), innovation, and China's aging population continues to gain traction. Our China equities portfolios are focused on selecting winners within these themes.

Markets have reacted nervously to the COVID-19 outbreak and that is not unexpected. Our way to counteract this is to keep our cash levels are a little higher than normal. We will put more cash to work when we feel the time is right.

Bin Shi: Top Baijiu makers have not dropped their prices despite the COVID-19 outbreak

China: Baijiu volume CAGR (2018-2023E)

Source: IWSR, NBS, Canback, Bernstein analysis & estimates, updated September 2019

More insights

Singapore Retail Investors

PLEASE READ THESE TERMS AND CONDITIONS CAREFULLY BEFORE PROCEEDING. BY UTILIZING THE WEBSITE AND PAGES THEREOF LOCATED AT WWW.UBS.COM/AM-SG ("WEBSITE"), YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT YOU HAVE READ THESE TERMS AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL TERMS OF USE (collectively "TERMS") AND THAT YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THEM. IF YOU DO NOT AGREE TO ALL OF THE TERMS OF THIS AGREEMENT, YOU ARE NOT AN AUTHORIZED USER OF THESE SERVICES AND YOU SHOULD NOT USE THIS WEBSITE.

This website is not intended for and should not be accessed by persons located or resident in any jurisdiction where (by reason of that person's nationality, domicile, residence or otherwise) the publication or availability of this website is prohibited or contrary to local law or regulation or would subject any UBS entity to any registration or licensing requirements in such jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to be aware of, to obtain all relevant regulatory approvals, licenses, verifications and/or registrations under, and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction in connection with your entrance to this website. Each investment product and service referred to on this website is intended to be made available only to residents in Singapore.

UBS reserves the right to change, modify, add or remove content on the website as well as these terms at any time for any reason without notice. Such changes shall be effective immediately upon posting. You acknowledge that by accessing our website after we have posted changes to these terms, you are agreeing to these terms as modified.

The materials on this Website are distributed by UBS Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd (company registration number: 199308367C), which is licensed by Monetary Authority of Singapore ("MAS") in Singapore pursuant to the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289 of Singapore). UBS Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd is part of the Asset Management business division of UBS Group AG. UBS Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd together with UBS Group AG and its group companies shall collectively be referred to as "UBS".

The information contained in this Website has been prepared and is intended for general circulation. The information does not constitute advice and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. The investment services or products referred to in this Website may not be suitable for all investors. UBS recommends that you independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and seek independent advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such investment products, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase any investment products. Investment involves risks. You should be aware that investments may increase or decrease in value and that past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The information contained in this Website is not an offer to buy or sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment product or to participate in any particular trading strategy. UBS, its officers and/or employees may have interests in any of the investment products referred to on this Website by acting in various roles. UBS, its officers and/or employees may receive fees, commissions or other benefits for acting in those capacities. In addition, UBS, its officers and/or employees may buy or sell investment products as principal or agent and may effect transactions which are not consistent with the information set out in this Website.

You fully understand and agree that, by making available this Website, UBS should not be construed as making: (a) any endorsement of any investment product referred to in this Website; (b) any representation that UBS has performed any due diligence on any investment product referred to in this Website; or (c) any representation that the information in this Website is complete, accurate, clear, fair and not misleading. The use or reliance on any such information contained in this Website is at your own risk and any losses which may be suffered as a result of you entering into any investment are for your account and UBS shall not be liable for any losses arising from or incurred by you in connection therewith. UBS is not responsible or liable for the accuracy and completeness of any such information or the performance or outcome of any investment made by you after receipt of such information, irrespective of whether such information was provided at your request.

Using, copying, redistributing or republishing any part of this Website without prior written permission from UBS is prohibited. Any statements made regarding investment performance objectives, risk and/or return targets shall not constitute a representation or warranty that such objectives or expectations will be achieved or risks are fully disclosed. The information and opinions contained in this Website is based upon information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no responsibility is accepted for any misrepresentation, errors or omissions. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. A number of comments in this Website are based on current expectations and are considered “forward-looking statements”. Actual future results may prove to be different from expectations and any unforeseen risk or event may arise in the future. The opinions expressed are a reflection of UBS’s judgment at the time this document is compiled and any obligation to update or alter forward-looking statements as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise is disclaimed.

UBS does not hold out any of its officers and/or employees as having any authority to advise you, and UBS does not purport to advise you on any investment product. Any investment will be made at your sole risk and UBS is not and shall not, in any manner, be liable or responsible for the consequences of any investment.

This Website and its contents are provided on an “as is” and “as available” basis. UBS does not warrant: (a) the accuracy, timeliness, adequacy commercial value or completeness of this Website or its contents, and expressly disclaims any liability for errors, delays or omissions in the contents, or for any action taken in reliance on the contents; (b) that your use of and/or access to this Website or its contents, will be uninterrupted, timely, secure or free from errors or that any identified defect will be corrected; (c) that this Website or any content will meet your requirements or are free from any virus or other malicious, destructive or corrupting code, agent, program or macros; (d) that any information, instructions or communications posted or transmitted by you through this Website is secure and cannot be accessed by unauthorised third parties; and (e) that use of the contents in this Website by you will not infringe the rights of any third parties. No warranty of any kind, implied, express or statutory, including but not limited to the warranties of non-infringement of third party rights, title, merchantability, satisfactory quality or fitness for a particular purpose and freedom from computer virus or other malicious, destructive or corrupting code, agent, program or macros, is given in conjunction with this Website.

You hereby agree to indemnify UBS and any of its officers, employees or agents against, and to keep UBS and any of its officers, employees or agents harmless from, any claims (actual and threatened), settlement sums, liability, loss, damages, costs (including solicitor and client costs and expenses (legal or otherwise)), charges, expenses, actions, proceedings, whether foreseeable or not which we may sustain, suffer or incur, directly or indirectly out of or in the course of or in connection with any the following: (a) any use of this Website or the contents by you, or any part thereof; (b) UBS having made available the Website; (c) any breach of these Terms by you, however arising; or (d) any negligence, act or omission, wilful default, unlawful act, fraud and/or misconduct on your part or violation of any rights of another person or entity by you.

The funds referred to in this Website have been authorised or recognised by the MAS for sale to the public in Singapore (the “Funds”). Copies of the registered Singapore prospectuses ("Prospectuses") referred to in this Website have been lodged with and registered by the MAS. The MAS assumes no responsibility for the contents of the Prospectuses. The registration of the Prospectuses by the MAS does not imply that the SFA or any other legal or regulatory requirements have been complied with.

MAS registration is not a recommendation or endorsement of a Fund nor does it guarantee the commercial merits or performance of such Fund. It does not mean that a Fund is suitable for all investors nor is it an endorsement of its suitability for any particular investor or class of investors. UBS Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd has been appointed as the representative for the Funds in Singapore for the purposes of performing administrative and other related functions relating to the offer of Shares under Section 287 of the Securities and Futures Act, Chapter 289 of Singapore (the "SFA") and such other functions as the MAS may prescribe.

You may not assign your rights under the Terms without our prior written consent. UBS Asset Management (Singapore) Ltd may assign our rights under the Terms to any third party.

No person or entity who is not a party to the Terms shall have any right under the Contracts (Rights of Third Parties) Act, Chapter 53B of Singapore or other similar laws to enforce any term of the Terms regardless of whether such person or entity has been identified by name, as a member of a class or as answering a particular description. For the avoidance of doubt, this shall not affect the rights of any permitted assignee or transferee of the Terms.

These Terms shall be governed by, and shall be construed in accordance with, the laws of Singapore. The courts of Singapore shall have exclusive jurisdiction to hear and determine any suit, action or proceeding, and to settle any disputes, which may arise out of or in connection with these Terms and, for such purposes, you agree to submit  to the jurisdiction of the courts of Singapore. Each party hereby waives any objection which it might at any time have to the courts of Singapore being nominated as the forum to hear and determine any proceedings and to settle any disputes and agrees not to claim that the courts of Singapore are not a convenient or appropriate forum.

© UBS 2020 - the key symbol and UBS are among the registered and unregistered trademarks of UBS. All rights reserved.

Reset