Do policy proposals really matter?

Investment implications of the 2020 US elections

13 Jan 2020

Key takeaways

  • Pay attention to the policy priorities that are likely to make the transition beyond campaign rhetoric, rather than the candidates’ party affiliation.
  • Notice which policies have the potential to affect the real economy and influence the market most substantially—our researchers consider those policies to be “macro impactful.”
  • Policy proposals with the potential to be “macro impactful” fall into four categories: fiscal policy, monetary policy, regulatory policy and trade policy.

Does the market “prefer” one party over another in an election year? Do the Iowa caucuses play an outsized role in determining presidential nominees? Our CIO strategists took a look at the facts.

It’s time for more clarity about the decisions ahead—sorting through election myths, separating personality and party from policy—and being aware of which ideas have the most potential to impact the economy on a macro level.

The US election is now less than 300 days away and 15 candidates remain in the race. As contenders look to distinguish themselves from competitors, what key issues can affect portfolios in November, and beyond? According to our research partners, fiscal and regulatory policy proposals, in particular, deserve close scrutiny, as they will exert the biggest influence on market outcomes.

Find out more about what to watch for during the 2020 US presidential campaigns. Read UBS ElectionWatch: Do policy proposals really matter?


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Prepare your portfolio today for tomorrow’s political possibilities.


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