We looked at the last eight cycles of elections, and identified three channels of influence through which the US elections influence emerging markets. Why does that matter? And what can we learn from past US elections?
What we do know is that emerging market assets often experience strong, if short-lived, price moves around US Election Day.
The nature of the electoral outcome also seems to matter: Emerging market assets have performed better during periods of a unified US government as well as during periods with a Democratic president in the White House. But these findings have to be taken with a grain of salt, as we have a limited amount of data from which to draw definitive conclusions.
Watch the video above to find out more, or explore the report, Emerging markets and the 2024 US elections, published 1 April 2024.
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