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Fixed Income A 5-minute inversion: what comes next?

For about five minutes during US market hours yesterday, the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields became negative, more signaling a so-called inversion. This was the first such inversion of this well-known market indicator since 2007, and although it lasted only for a very brief period of time, we do acknowledge that the 3-month/10-year yield curve has remained inverted for close to three months.

  • UBS House View - Daily US US heading toward subpar growth, not recession

    Strong retail sales figures suggest US consumers are continuing to prop up the economy, helping partially to offset the hit to business confidence from the US-China trade conflict. Sales were up 0.7% month-on-month in July, the fifth consecutive increase and the fastest in four months. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 Aug 2019
  • Markets Art Cashin - On the markets (08/15)

    Art Cashin, the Director of Floor Operations at the NYSE for UBS, discusses the latest news and events impacting the markets. This week: A review of the key catalysts which drove what was a volatile week in the global markets, including US-China trade, the Hong Kong protests, macro data-points and the week ahead. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 Aug 2019
  • Sustainable investing Food revolution needed to combat climate change

    Farm differently, eat more veggies, says the UN. In a report released last week, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UNIPCC) highlighted the many ways in which rising temperatures have affected agriculture and conversely, the way our current methods of food production contribute to climate change. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Commodities CIO quick take on gold, oil

    Global risk-on/off sentiment has driven the prices of oil and gold. The Chief Investment Office (CIO) takes a look at the fundamentals. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Geopolitics Podcast: Trade dispute, Argentina

    Alejo Czerwonko, Emerging Markets Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office dives into recent developments surrounding two notable geopolitical topics, US-China trade relations and the recent Argentina elections. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Markets Yields signal recession risk? We say not so fast.

    Weak economic data and a further flattening of the US Treasury yield curve on Wednesday led the S&P 500 to decline 2.93%, global equities 2.85%, and emerging market stocks 2.88%. Mounting economic worries stemmed from weaker-than-expected Chinese retail sales and industrial production, while German GDP contracted in the second quarter. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 Aug 2019
  • Fixed Income Podcast: Fixed Income Strategist

    Leslie Falconio, the Chief Investment Office's (CIO) Senior Fixed Income Strategist discusses how fixed income assets perform during easing cycles, where Treasury yields are headed and how credit investors should position in the current environment, and more. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 Aug 2019
  • Planning A recession is coming*

    *To be fair, a recession is always coming at some point in the future. But I'm glad I got your attention with the headline. Please keep reading... more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Tariffs partially delayed

    The US Trade Representative has announced a partial delay in the imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese imports. While final details have not been published, for around half of the approximately USD 300bn worth of goods, it appears that the 10% tariffs originally scheduled to be imposed on 1 September will be delayed until 15 December. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 14 Aug 2019
  • Argentina Argentina: Unexpected victory for opposition

    Primary elections took place in Argentina on Sunday. The results revealed unanticipated voter preferences that give a much clearer outlook for the 24 October general elections. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • Retirement The cost of long-term care

    The number of Americans who will need long-term care is expected to double in the next 30 years. According to a recent UBS investor survey, about one-third of wealthy investors now have a parent who needs some kind of assistance. Most investors say they hope to be able to age in their homes and hire care when needed, or move to an assisted living situation if necessary. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • US Economy Trade disputes threaten recovery

    With policy uncertainty weighing on business investment, further escalation of trade disputes raises the risk of a recession. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points on 31 July and we now expect an additional 75 basis points of cuts by next March. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Political turmoil shows diversification benefits

    Concerns that escalating trade tensions will slow global growth have prompted equity markets to retreat from recent highs and have helped send global bond yields lower. Growing political concerns have further dented investor sentiment in recent days. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 13 Aug 2019
  • House View Weekly What's behind the "Currency Manipulator" label?

    The US Department of the Treasury officially labeled China a "currency manipulator" last week, following the latest bout of weakness in the yuan that pushed the Chinese currency above 7 per US dollar. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 12 Aug 2019
  • Intellectual Capital Blog Curb your enthusiasm

    Industrials stocks held up better than feared during the second quarter earnings season despite overall growth and earnings guidance that was worse than expected. Going into the quarter we believed that management's guidance was largely too aggressive which would result in earnings misses and guidance cuts for the back half of this year. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 12 Aug 2019
  • UBS House View - Daily US Lull in trade dispute looks unlikely to last

    No news was good news for global equities. The absence of fresh clashes between the US and China over the weekend contributed to a 1.8% rise in China's CSI 100 and a 0.1% move higher in the Euro Stoxx 50. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 12 Aug 2019
  • Portfolio management Introducing the Bear Market Damage Index

    When an investor is forced to sell out of their portfolio during a market drawdown, they not only lock in otherwise-temporary losses, but they also prevent their assets from fully participating in the market recovery (and future gains). For unprepared investors, unfortunate timing—for example, a sizable market drop at the beginning of retirement—can catastrophically deplete investment portfolios. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 09 Aug 2019