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Market commentary The next bear market – how to prepare

Bear markets are difficult to predict. In our view, we're in the mid-to-late stage of the current cycle. While we're likely more closer to the next recession than we are to the last one, we don't see the type of conditions that would suggest an economic downturn in the next 12 to 18 months.

  • UBS House View Monthly Letter From TINA to TIARA

    We’re moving from a TINA (There is no alternative) market to a TIARA (There is a real alternative) one. What does this mean for equities and your portfolio? more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 18 Oct 2018
  • US Economy Forging ahead despite tariffs

    Brian Rose, Senior Economist Americas, reviews recent economic data, the labor market and consumer spending, tariffs, housing and what the Fed is projecting for the next year. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 18 Oct 2018
  • UBS House View - Daily US Hawkish market reaction belies Fed’s balanced tone

    Investors interpreted the minutes from September’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting as hawkish, focusing on the fact that a few officials believe rates should become "moderately restrictive" for a time. 10-year US Treasury yields rose 4bps, and equities in Asia declined, with the Nikkei 225 down 0.8% and the Hang Seng down 0.2%. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 18 Oct 2018
  • Real Estate Sears sees end of an era, but what about malls?

    Once the largest retailer in the world, Sears filed for bankruptcy on 15 October 2018. The company, which hasn’t turned a profit since 2010, listed liabilities of around $11.34 billion, according to Bloomberg. But the end of America's most famous department store begs the question: is brick and mortar dead? more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 17 Oct 2018
  • UBS House View - Daily US Earnings growth swings back into focus

    The S&P 500 rose 2.15% on 16 October, its largest daily gain since March. The rally was also broad-based, with 93% of index constituents gaining on the day. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 17 Oct 2018
  • House View Weekly Where we stand on the market sell-off

    President Donald Trump put the blame for last week’s equity market slide firmly on the Federal Reserve, claiming the central bank was “going loco” by raising rates too far, too fast. The S&P 500 dropped 4.1% over the week, the Nasdaq fell 3.7% and the MSCI All Country World index by 4.1%. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 17 Oct 2018
  • Technology Microsoft and Paul Allen's Legacy

    Paul Allen, the cofounder of Microsoft with Bill Gates in 1975, has died at the age of 65 from complications due to Hodgkin's lymphoma. The mark he left on personal computing technology, philanthropy, and entrepreneurship will be felt for generations to come. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 Oct 2018
  • Disaster Recovery In the path of Hurricane Michael

    Residents and business owners continue to be affected by the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, as the powerful category 4 hurricane barreled through the Florida Panhandle and the Southeast Coast of the US and Mexico, causing vast swaths of irreparable damage to communities, and claimed over a dozen lives. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 Oct 2018
  • Market commentary Are markets more volatile under President Trump?

    Justin Waring, strategist with the Chief Investment Office, was recently asked this question. He takes a look at volatility over the last two years, and the impact of politics on markets. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 Oct 2018
  • House View Daily Sears bankruptcy highlights rise of e-commerce

    The US consumer appears to be in good shape. US core retail sales, which most closely correspond to the consumer spending component of GDP, jumped 0.5% in September. Bank of America, reporting 3Q results on 15 October, highlighted the strength of its consumer-lending business, which produced the most interest income since 2011. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 16 Oct 2018
  • Currencies Brexit talks stall, sterling volatile

    The British pound came under pressure on Monday morning following an unsuccessful attempt over the weekend to find a compromise in the Brexit negotiations. However, the currency swiftly recovered. CIO continues to expect a deal to be reached, but the pound is likely to remain volatile until then. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 Oct 2018
  • UBS House View Tensions tilt oil price risks higher

    Diplomatic tensions between the US and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of a prominent critic of the Saudi regime pushed oil prices higher on 15 October. The official Saudi news agency reported on Sunday that the country would respond to any punitive measures taken by the US with an even “stronger” response. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 15 Oct 2018
  • Art collecting Banksy's creative destruction sells - and resells

    The anonymous British artist known as Banksy shredded it – literally – at Sotheby's last weekend when his painting, "Girl With Balloon" self-destructed. But then it was almost immediately resold, shreds and all. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 12 Oct 2018
  • Understanding Volatility Managing volatility

    This year started with one of the strongest equity market rallies in history, gaining 7.6% through the 26 January close. Then, in just six trading days, the market reversed those gains and ended a period of extreme calm that had seen 19 months without a 5% drop. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 12 Oct 2018
  • Market commentary Seeking market stability amid technical challenges

    The equity market sell-off continued today, with the S&P 500 and Dow both down just over 2%, bringing the S&P 500’s six-day decline to -6.75%. This happened despite no notable earnings news and the one significant economic data point (September US CPI inflation) was actually below expectations—a dovish result for rates that temporarily lifted equity futures. more

    • by UBS Editorial Team
    • 12 Oct 2018