Daily update
Daily update
- US October consumer price inflation should have been published today. It is unlikely the number will ever be calculated, because there was no one to collect the price data. This highlights a problem —even if the US government is functioning, there are fewer employees collecting prices, which means more of the inflation number is ”interpolated” (or “guessed”).
- US administration officials have suggested tariffs on food might be reduced to lower food price inflation. Consumers are unusually sensitive to food prices, as food is a high frequency purchase. The 1.85% food price increase since December 2024 includes some significant inflation for specific items. It is not clear that lowering tariffs will lower prices— it depends on what retailers think they can get away with. The import price of bananas has fallen since tariffs were imposed, but the US consumer price has risen.
- Federal Reserve officials were sounding somewhat cautious about rapid rate cuts. Fed Governor Cook has supported rate cuts, and will vote at the December Fed meeting but may not at the January meeting. The Supreme Court will hear arguments in January about whether Cook should continue to serve.
- UK third quarter GDP data is due but is only likely to attract much attention if it is below expectations (bad news sells).