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Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025

With 125 years of data, the UBS Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2025 provides the historical evidence and perspective needed to underpin future investment strategy. Discover how the first quarter of the 21st century’s market performance compares with that of the 20th century.

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  • Investing under Trump 2.0: Uncertainty and market volatility could persist as Trump’s policies take shape. But investors can bolster their portfolios by positioning for several enduring trends.
  • CIO House View: the impact of current economic trends on asset allocation based on our assessment of the global economy and financial markets.
  • Economics. Without jargon. Daily insights on a wide range of topics from Paul Donovan, our Global Chief Economist.

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Investing under Trump 2.0

President Trump threatens Brazil with 50% tariff

US President Trump has announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian products, effective from 1 August. The US administration has justified the decision on trade as well as non-economic grounds. Brazil has responded that “any unilateral move to raise tariffs will be met in accordance with Brazil’s Economic Reciprocity Law.” We think a 50% tariff rate would be a negative shock to the Brazilian economy, but one that would be modest in size.

Trump’s tariff letters do not signal trade war escalation

The Trump administration has sent formal trade demand letters to 14 economies with new tariff rates, but it has also allowed more time for additional negotiations. With the move well telegraphed and the tariffs similar to levels announced three months ago, we expect more deals to emerge in the coming weeks.

Who could win and lose on tighter Trump AI controls

The end of the “reciprocal” tariff pause

Republicans pass the OBBB

CIO House View

Economics. Without jargon

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