- World leaders have made unprecedented decisions about the costs and benefits of temporarily restricting economic activity to limit the spread of COVID-19.
- In response, major central banks have turned to their global financial crisis playbook—in a matter of days.
- Fiscal policymakers have announced large-scale support that includes loan guarantees, deficit spending measures and direct support.
Fiscal policymakers are ramping up their response to the COVID-19 outbreak. So far, they’ve announced assistance packages worth 10% of GDP for the US, 16% of GDP for the UK, 15% of GDP for Germany and 15% of GDP for France—as a start.
Our research strategists believe these measures—and policymakers’ willingness to do more—will help us avoid a global financial crisis-style credit crunch. But, so far, widespread restrictions on personal movement are impacting the markets more than fiscal policy announcements.
How quickly can economic activity get back to normal? How much can policy response limit corporate bankruptcies and job losses? Our research partners have thought through a few scenarios: best case, worst case and most probable.
Read the latest UBS House View to see the three scenarios. And, in our live conversation this month, our research partners will highlight stocks they view as relatively resilient to disruption from the virus.
Join that call for the UBS House View conversation on Thursday, April 2, at 1 p.m. ET.*
(This month will be a dial-in call only. There will be no video.)
Join CIO’s live UBS House View conversation on the first Thursday of every month at 1 p.m. ET (10 a.m. PT).