One late evening in the Norwegian city of Bergen, two men are waiting at a bus stop. Their expressions carry focus and intent despite the time of day, and their discussion is clearly posing a predicament. A short while later, a curious bystander notices a change in their demeanor; a problem has been solved. The two men are economists Finn Kydland and Edward Prescott, and the idea that came to them at that bus stop would win them the Nobel Prize decades later.
Finn E. Kydland
The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, 2004
At a glance
Born: 1943; Gjesdal, Norway
Prize-winning work: Contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the time consistency of economic policy and the driving forces behind business cycles
Letters on his car’s license plate: GDP
Biggest passion: Blues music
Favorite pastime: Playing guitar and taking guitar lessons
A magical moment
Kydland, a native of Norway, shares his story with excitement. By the time of the "a-ha moment" at the bus stop, Kydland and Prescott had been intensely focused for quite some time on the best way to model business cycles using various simplifying assumptions. One of the assumptions, for instance, involved an economy in which people are all alike and immortal. Then suddenly, waiting for the bus that night Kydland says an idea pop into his head and they started making progress. In this case, the progress meant game-changing work in macroeconomics.
Everyday decisions, modeled dynamically
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How do you make politicians commit to the things they’ve promised?
Although it sounds profoundly theoretical, the work on time inconsistency and policy commitment delivers concrete implications and relevance for governance. "Good policy presumably would take into account the effect future policy has on earlier decisions," he says. "The problem is when that future arrives, those decisions have already been made. Especially if a government finds itself in a bit of an emergency situation, which governments somehow often do, they’ll have an incentive to focus more on the short term and abandon continuation of their policy."
One reason policies are easily cast aside in times of turmoil is that elected governments of the politicians in charge at the time regulate economic and fiscal policies. These policies are subject to change in the long run or are inconsistent. Politicians don’t always commit to policies once elected. Indeed, there is no conceivable way to make sure that their commitments matter.
"Sometimes I joke that this is such an important problem, if some young hotshot economist comes up with a way to commit to good future fiscal policy, he will probably stand in front of the King of Sweden and receive a prize," Kydland says.
To make sure those in power stay dedicated to policies that are consistent over time, Kydland and Prescott focused on the regulation of monetary policy, which is a matter for central banks. The conclusion that followed from their groundbreaking work, suggests that central banks should be kept impartial to government pressure. Simply put, the work justifies the independence of central banks as the way to make sure the policies remain consistent over time.
A pledge through independence: the case of central banks
Becoming an economist by accident
Kydland fell into his academic career by accident. His choices are atypical, if not somewhat rebellious considering his background. Coming from a traditional farming family, Kydland’s father had been the first to break the mold and start a trucking business. Because he’d been excellent at math in school, Kydland later went on to attend the Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration. He believed he had a career in business management ahead of him, until he attended an inspiring seminar with Sten Thore. "If I hadn’t taken that seminar from him, I would have ended up with a very boring life,” he says. One can’t help but wonder if an innovative, entrepreneurial spirit like Kydland’s is even capable of choosing a boring path.
Can economists contribute to treating Alzheimer’s disease?
Today, Kydland is exploring the application of his theories in interdisciplinary fields by putting together a conference on the economics of Alzheimer’s disease with his wife Tonya, a neuroscientist specializing in Alzheimer’s at UC Santa Barbara. Kydland has always emphasized the importance of sharing workspace with fellow academics in a wide range of fields. In very practical terms, the outcome of this cross-pollination could bring us closer to answering some of the world’s most pressing questions, including developing new ways of treating Alzheimer’s.
What’s the future of Europe?
Some of these questions are inherently economical. The future of Europe, for example, and how the European Union’s economies can grow again at sustainable rates. "There are deep-seated problems in those nations," he says. "And they need to focus on how they can get productivity curves to turn back up."
What’s the way out of the Southern Eurozone crisis?
Get new questions as they launch
"I’ve always been motivated by what I regarded as interesting questions", Kydland admits. And he’s known as a person who is "curious about questions in economics and encourages young people to do independent research," says Carlos Carriga, a colleague from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. If his students and collaborators take a moment and think, ‘Is what I’m spending my time on important?’ Kydland feels satisfied.
A piece of advice (sort of)
Even though, according to Kydland, Norwegians don’t usually feel comfortable giving advice, he does have one pearl of wisdom to offer. He suggests that his graduate students don’t read too much. He thinks this might take their thinking in the direction of academic literature and divert them from their own curious and creative path. "If you come up with something that everyone thinks is wrong but you’re completely convinced it’s correct, then it could be a big deal," he says.
A night on the town with a Nobel laureate
While economics remains his foremost interest, throughout his life he’s accumulated a wide range of other passions, hobbies and activities, such as playing the guitar, running a mink-farm and marathons. Blues is another such passion. Going to a pub in downtown Santa Barbara with Kydland and his friends is a truly remarkable night out. Not only is Kydland at home here, as the greetings from bartenders and staff suggests he’s also very familiar with the band and its music.
It doesn’t seem to matter in that moment what Kydland does with the rest of his time, what kind of ground-breaking work he’s done and will continue to do, it’s simply an exchange of energy between the artists and their fan.
“He much prefers to be known as somebody who supports blues music,” his colleague at UC Santa Barbara Douglas Steigerwald says. “Not as a famous economist.”
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So, what does Kydland's work mean for us?
"Kydland’s work on changing expectations over time, and the implications of that, speaks directly to financial market investors craving insight."
Global Chief Economist
UBS Wealth Management