Daily update
Daily update
- In 1972, US President Nixon focused on the electoral risks of rising hamburger meat prices, ultimately imposing government control of wages and prices. Yesterday, US President Trump signaled concern about today’s US affordability crisis, signing executive orders attempting to lower beef prices (up over 16% since January 2025). Trump also urged temporarily ending the federal gasoline tax—that would increase fiscal borrowing, but only offset a small part of recent price increases.
- Trump warned about the Iranian ceasefire’s survival. Oil prices moved a little, but Trump’s comments have reduced market impact nowadays. Food and energy prices are expected to increase headline US April consumer price inflation, with core rates steady. However, food and energy have outsized importance in setting inflation perceptions, as higher frequency purchases.
- German final April consumer price inflation was unchanged, which is no surprise. The ZEW survey of economists’ views is due. While economists’ opinions should always be revered, there may be a pessimistic bias. Mathematical models will likely understate structural change, overstating oil price impacts.
- UK politics is allowing local media to use the phrase “on the brink” excessively. Bond markets have reacted to the uncertainty somewhat—part of the long-term damage of the Truss debacle may be a UK political risk premium.