Daily update
Daily update
- The US Congress failed to either change the rules or come to an agreement to avert a government shutdown. Economists now lack official economic data from the US. Private sector data is a poor substitute. Private data is like viewing the economy through a keyhole —clear, but with a narrow field of vision. Official data is like opening the door. Private data relies on official data to model the bits of the economy outside its field of vision, and that modelling becomes less accurate in the absence of official data.
- US President Trump’s nominee for Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner has been withdrawn, after it appeared that they lacked the votes for confirmation in the Republican-controlled Senate. That rejection is important for investors, with the Federal Reserve chair due for confirmation next year.
- Eurozone September consumer price inflation is due. Provincial data tended to be very slightly higher than anticipated, but this is not going to change expectations of a steady ECB policy.
- Japan’s Tankan business sentiment poll was remarkably in line with consensus. Only capital spending surprised (positively)—with perhaps a whiff of artificial intelligence enthusiasm. South Korean export numbers were distorted higher by calendar effects. Semiconductors offered strength; overall exports to the US were very weak.