by Barry Gill

Which high impact events could 2022 bring that are not well reflected in current asset prices? Barry Gill, Head of Investments looks at the unexpected risks that could jolt investors’ plans.

It becomes obvious the surge in inflation is structural

  • Demand bolstered by the pandemic stimulus
  • Global supply chain disruption
  • A demographic and political shift

Tail risk – a *Carrington event exposes our excess dependency on electronics

  • A major *solar storm causes damage to satellite systems
  • Communication and power grids disrupted
  • Fragility of our tech stack is revealed

A ‘blow-off top’ in equity markets due to the euphoria of normalization

  • Investors take on more risk amid loose monetary policy 
  • Will the bull market born out of the pandemic reach boiling point?
  • Consumer and business confidence surges

“Common prosperity” goes global

  • Efforts to address the widening wealth gap in China
  • Impacts on the rest of the world
  • Corporate and top tier income taxes rise significantly

Evergrande is China’s subprime moment

  • Much of China’s economy tied to real estate
  • The problems of the indebted property developer spread 
  • Can China deflate in an orderly manner?

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