Daily update
Daily update
- German November retail sales were weaker than expected, but the October data was revised substantially higher. Throughout 2025, German retail sales data was nearly always revised substantially higher, and there is no reason to suppose that trend will not continue. German consumers are more persistently exuberant than initially reported.
- Reports of sales of USD 2.8bn of heavy Venezuelan crude oil to the US are very light on details. Such sales are likely to have almost no macroeconomic impact—the scale is too small and the crude (presumably) too heavy to influence US consumers’ perceptions about affordability.
- The US Supreme Court will issue judgements this Friday, with expectations of a ruling on the legality of tariffs. Over 70% of tariffs (before recent tariff revisions, delays, and cancellations) are being considered. If these are ruled illegal and trigger rebates, the ruling becomes a de facto fiscal stimulus to the US—even if new tariffs subsequently impose new fiscal constraints on future trade.
- For US inflation and affordability perceptions, the question is whether a reversal of tariffs will reverse any consumer price increases associated with those tariffs. Past instances suggest skepticism about any deflation impulse. The risk is that any new tariffs (in response to a ruling) might raise other prices.