Daily update
Daily update
- Energy infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates has seemingly been hit by Iranian attacks—the UAE recently stopped sharing missile and drone intercept data. This pushed oil prices higher. British Airways has cancelled all flights to Dubai and other regional destinations until June. US President Trump reiterated pleas for help, saying countries were eager to assist (declining to name them). Markets are likely to see-saw between concerns over damage to oil infrastructure, and hopes that the US may look for an exit.
- Trump has asked to postpone the scheduled summit with China’s President Xi. The delay is unlikely to be too economically significant. Trade talks are continuing, and China’s export numbers remain robust. A trade deal would reduce the tariff burden on US companies, but the ending of the IEEPA tariffs was probably more significant.
- The German ZEW sentiment survey asks questions of 350 financial market experts. Unfortunately, sentiment is likely to be driven by war, which the surveyed respondents may not be experts in. Sentiment might swing around as it did in the spring of 2020.
- Central bankers are in their quiet time ahead of meetings. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue to demonstrate division, but major central bank policy changes are unlikely at this stage.