Daily update
Daily update
- US President Trump’s State of the Union address defended the past year, seeking to reset the economic narrative of the past year. As such, it is not especially market relevant—although so much of a focus on the domestic economy (perhaps in response to recent approval rating numbers) might be important in shaping future policy.
- German fourth-quarter GDP was unrevised on the headline in its latest iteration. However, consumption was revised higher, and also revised up for the third quarter. The latest GfK consumer sentiment poll was lower than expected and also revised down. This is a reminder that what consumers say does not seem to match what they actually do.
- Final January Eurozone consumer price inflation is of no interest to markets, as it almost never changes from earlier estimates. However, on a month-on-month basis, consumer prices in the Eurozone did fall in January. That is not something that has happened in the US since the pandemic.
- China’s spring festival saw VAT receipts increase 13.7% in consumer related sectors, but the festival itself was 29% longer this year. Tourism spending seems to be stable on a per person, adjusted basis. This hints at the importance of export-led growth to China’s outlook.