Daily update
Daily update
- US President Trump delivers a State of the Union address to Congress. Normally, these are not market moving, but investors will look for two things: will there be more tariff threats in the written remarks (which carry more weight than ad lib comments)?; how supportive of Trump will Congressional Republicans be? House Speaker Johnson suggested Congress would not vote to continue tariffs.
- Reporting economic realities does not reflect economic perceptions. People judge through the sensationalized media output of their smartphone. This is especially relevant for the affordability crisis. US consumers perceive higher grocery and electricity prices and do not acknowledge lower television or used car prices (because most people have not bought used cars recently).
- In countries like the UK, perception problems are compounded by underreporting of real-time economic data. Four members of the Bank of England testify to Parliament today, relevant with a divided policy outlook. Various Federal Reserve speakers are also relevant, for the same reason.
- Today is the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia has recently lost territory it claimed to hold, and peace seems remote. War carries a huge humanitarian cost; economic costs are often mitigated by a willingness to adapt—e.g., German exports to Kazakhstan, or changing energy demand patterns.