Daily update
Daily update
- There has been a heated exchange over the situation in the Gulf this weekend. However, US Vice President Vance is in Switzerland to talk with Iranian officials. There have been cautiously positive statements from Iran on the talks, and given market perceptions of the balance of power, that fact (plus the inherent market bias to optimism) has produced lower oil prices.
- South Korean export data for early June showed strength as the world’s desire to play with AI continues. There are risks for South Korea with the drivers of economic growth becoming so concentrated into one theme, but the Bank of Korea is also watching for domestic economic impacts from the technology sector’s windfall benefits.
- European Central Bank (ECB) President Lagarde speaks before the economic and monetary policy committee of the European Parliament—the first such comments since the recent ECB policy error. Recent events have underscored the low probability of second round inflation effects. There is also speculation about when Lagarde may leave the ECB.
- There is now an expectation that UK Prime Minister Starmer will resign. Markets have not been much moved—the successor apparent, former Manchester Mayor Burnham, is not expected to radically change the policies investors care about (instead offering small changes and better social media skills).