Daily update
Daily update
- The US government’s views on the Gulf war and its consequences seem to be contradictory. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Strait of Hormuz was not being mined—later clarified by officials to mean that it probably was. US President Trump asserted US strength as an oil producer, then called for emergency intermeeting rate cuts (a crisis measure to prevent imminent recession). Iranian policy is consistent—the strait will remain closed.
- US January personal income and spending data should confirm continuing pre-war consumption. US household savings rates dropped 1.5 percentage points last year, allowing US consumers to afford tariffs without cutting spending. That approach is also likely to cover skyrocketing gasoline prices, for now. The administration launched a second wave of tariff investigations, threatening US importers of goods from 60 countries.
- Michigan March consumer sentiment data might capture some of the gasoline price rise in its inflation expectations—though these are highly partisan. In February, Republicans thought inflation would be 0.7% this year. Democrats thought it would be 4.8%.
- German February wholesale prices were dull and uneventful. French final February CPI will not change from the preliminary number. UK inflation expectations data will be unrealistic, as it is skewed by a minority of hardened inflation pessimists.