Daily update
Daily update
- The collapse of Iran-US talks predictably pushed oil prices higher and equities lower. US President Trump declared an “immediate” blockade of Hormuz—the US military clarified “immediate” means from 1400 GMT today, and “blockade” means ships using Iranian ports. If successful, this would stop Iranian oil supply (primarily to China). Markets’ optimistic bias remains; oil prices are nowhere near levels to cut demand circa 15%, and Asian equities reversed only part of the ceasefire rally.
- The Hungarian opposition is projected to win a supermajority despite Prime Minister Orban being backed by Russian President Putin and Trump. Orban’s defeat will change Hungary’s EU relations (e.g. unblocking a loan to Ukraine). Opposition support rose after US Vice President Vance’s endorsement of Orban, which may influence other EU politicians close to the US administration.
- US home sales data are due. Increased mortgage rates and home building costs mean that US home ownership is only possible later in life. Economically this affects things like durable goods demand, but also entrepreneurship (the home is often tapped for capital when starting a business).
- There are assorted central bank speakers, who have no insight into the course of the war. It is too soon to identify potential second-round effects in inflation or labor markets.