More tariff threats?

Daily update

The Bank of Korea left rates unchanged, as every economist predicted. There was forward guidance (regrettably, the Bank of Korea likes the Federal Reserve’s fabled “dot plot” approach, and adopted a refined version). This signaled no change in policy for six months, with relatively positive views on economic growth.
On Saturday, US President Trump suggested that US importers would face a 15% tariff on many imports. On Tuesday, the tariff was implemented at 10%. Overnight, US Trade Representative Greer said some imports would be subject to a 15% tariff. The difference between tariffs of 10% and 15% is limited (it translates into a 2pps consumer price difference—not likely to be noticed in the affordability crisis). However, ongoing uncertainty might keep US businesses in “wait-and-see” mode.
US initial jobless claims are not a major data release, but last year’s almost non-existent employment growth means any labor market data gets attention. A no-hire, no-fire environment does not necessarily raise jobless claims data (that generally requires firing).
Assorted central bankers are speaking. Eurozone M3 data is due—continuing to grow more slowly than the economy. Central banks prevent inflation by lowering relative money supply growth when liquidity demand cools (something crypto-enthusiasts seemingly fail to understand).