Daily update
Daily update
- US President Trump declared the war with Iran was “very complete, pretty much”. The vagueness of the war objectives and Trump’s tendency to reverse more dramatic policy positions meant markets had anticipated signals the US would seek to end the war soon – but investors limited conviction. The statement provoked a market reaction, though the lack of confirmation from other administration officials, and Iran’s response, have limited that reaction.
- China’s February trade data showed stronger-than-expected exports. The figures are pre-war, of course, but highlight that the global economy continues to trade happily in spite of the unilateral action of the US. These exports are also largely before the US IEEPA tariffs were ruled illegal (which reduced the tariffs US companies pay when buying from China).
- German trade data was weaker than “expected”, and unusually the previous data was not revised higher—but the consensus forecast is made from only nine estimates, with a wide range. Exports to the US were relatively strong, however.
- US data is very much background noise today. The NFIB poll of small business sentiment is always at risk of extreme political partisanship, in addition to the problems of any survey evidence. Housing sales data is not generally considered first-tier data for markets.