Daily update
Daily update
- German industrial production was stronger than expected and (of course) previous data was revised stronger too. November exports were weaker, but US importers have been scrambling to minimize their tax liabilities which has distorted normal patterns of trade.
- French industrial production lacks the glamor and attention of the German data, but should be consistent with the idea of a European economy offering solid, trend-like growth. European retail sales numbers should give similar signals.
- US employment data has been subject to quality questions—and the number of people working at the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been plunging. However, the data should continue to show the “don’t hire, don’t fire” pattern that gives softer headline numbers but grants middle-income consumers the confidence to cut savings rates in order to pay for higher prices.
- US President Trump remains focused on the affordability crisis, ordering mortgage agencies to buy mortgage bonds to try and lower mortgage rates further. Other policies might have counter effects on housing affordability (fiscal fears related to defense spending and foreign adventures, immigration policy and AI policies and their impact on construction). Affordability is more about perception than reality, so which policy narrative dominates will determine whether views of affordability shift.