How bouncy is the bounce back?

Daily update

Economists traditionally do not worry too much about the growth impact of US government shutdowns, as the short-term loss of economic output tends to be paid back with an economic bounce when government reopens. It is still a net negative—contractors are not compensated for lost activity in a shutdown—but government workers get their back pay paid back. US President Trump has suggested that may not happen this time. If that were legally enforced, it would reduce the bounce of the bounce back.
Japan’s cash earnings data was pulled weaker than expected by lower bonus payments. Prime Minister-presumptive Takaichi has focused on pay as being important to ensure that inflation endures in Japan, so this might further weaken market expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate increase.
German August industrial production was weaker than expected. This is a volatile series, and frequently subject to sizable revisions. In the context of shifting trad patterns and altered consumer spending tastes, it may get a modest amount of market attention.
The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due—when all but Governor Miran voted for a 25bps rate cut. Miran has subsequently attempted to justify their more aggressive stance, but markets are inclined to focus on a more modest pace of easing.