Daily update
Daily update
- Media reports suggest US importers may face a lower tariff on products from Switzerland (the suggestion is that the August 39% tariff becomes 15%). Swiss imports are a rather modest contribution to the basket of goods that form US consumer price inflation. However, price reactions to a tariff cut might be an important signal. Other tariff cuts have not led to proportionate reductions in consumer prices. If this trend continues, it might create inflation stickiness if the US Supreme Court rules other tariffs to be illegal.
- The UK October BRC retail sales data showed modest gains. The numbers include price changes, and they might hint at some moderation of inflation pressures for food. The overall picture does not show retailers suffering. UK labor market data is limited in scope, but should confirm rising real incomes for working households.
- The German ZEW business sentiment survey is due, and has been relatively steady this year—but perhaps is still more guided by the media narrative than economic reality.
- The US NFIB small business sentiment poll has a history of aligning with Republican views, in an increasingly partisan political and economic landscape. The danger is that in the absence of reliable economic data, numbers like this receive an attention they do not merit.