Daily update
Daily update
- The Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimously reappointed the regional Fed presidents. This is normally an uneventful vote, and was scheduled for February. Early reappointment is not unprecedented. Markets have been concerned that regional presidents who disagreed with US President Trump’s monetary policy ideas might be pruned away in February. Whether a deliberately defensive maneuver or not, this action reduces concerns about central bank independence, and should lessen some risks around longer-dated bonds and mortgage interest rates.
- Yesterday’s September US trade data demonstrates why the economist’s life is so hard. The export numbers were distorted by exceptional exports of non-monetary gold. Higher gold prices boost the value of exports, and gold trade has been complicated by US buyers’ concerns that it may be subject to tariff. Non-monetary gold is normally excluded from GDP calculations, so the trade position does not necessarily mean better US growth.
- Several Eurozone economies offer final November consumer price inflation data. This almost never changes from the initial release, and markets are not expecting the ECB to change policy any time soon.
- The random number generator that is UK monthly GDP showed a decline in October, driven in large part by the auto sector. Other areas of the economy were more stable.