Daily update

  • Technology sector equity movements are attracting attention, but economists retain an appropriate degree of aloofness. The pattern of consumers reducing savings to finance consumption has been fairly universal across advanced economies. Wealth effects from the technology sector have not been as universal. As wealth effects are meaningless without changes of behavior to translate them into real economic action, the global similarities of behavior hint at consumers having a muted dependence on rising equity markets.
  • UK October GfK consumer confidence was weaker than expected (by a limited number of economists). Actual consumer spending has tended to defy sentiment, and today’s retail sales data will be more significant. However, younger consumers are still prioritizing spending on having fun (which falls largely outside the retail sales figure).
  • US final Michigan consumer sentiment data is something even the most enthusiastic of investors will struggle to get excited about. The only possible market relevance is likely to be the proximity to the US midterm elections. That may confuse the traditional political polarization, however—Democrats may report feeling more positive in expectation of a strong election performance.
  • Japanese national September consumer price inflation was as expected. The idea that the Bank of Japan will raise rates again, but without much urgency, is reinforced by the data.

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