Trust the trends

Daily update

The US employment report was a convenient reminder not to put too much emphasis onto a single unreliable data release. There were notable revisions, and the details showed swings in seasonal adjustments moving the figures in a rather maladjusted manner. The trends are still the same. In an uncertain policy environment, companies seem reluctant to hire, but are also not rushing to fire. The labor market situation does not make rate cuts urgent, but this plus the use of savings to pay for tariffs and gasoline prices does add some fragility to the US consumer.
ECB President Lagarde is to offer some remarks today—for the fourth time this week. It is unlikely that these remarks will add a great deal to humanity’s stock of knowledge.
Bank of England governor Bailey is also speaking (these remarks have some scarcity value —it is only the second time Bailey will have spoken this week). The Bank of England’s Mann was suggesting possible support for “activist” rate hikes in the UK, but hawkish comments from Mann will surprise no one.
Ship watchers in the Strait of Hormuz have more to occupy their time, as sailings gradually increase. This is the markets’ base case, and asset prices are likely to be unmoved.