Trade details

Daily update

UK monthly GDP data was stronger than expected, and revised stronger for the previous month—but the monthly GDP data is economists’ version of white noise (a background hum to help one sleep). Manufacturing and services data was stronger and generally revised up. Trade data showed a lot more volatility in previous metal trade, and stronger exports (away from the US). European trade data should also show normal non-US trade.
US November import and export prices are of interest—at least the import prices. To date, there is no real evidence of foreigners taking any meaningful share of the US tariff burden. Only a decline in export prices in defiance of historical trends and global pattern would signal that.
European troops are being sent to Greenland, in what is interpreted as a defensive measure. For investors, this is a reminder that defense costs money, and there will be (to date modest) fiscal implications. It may also indicate a faster decline in US companies’ share of European defense procurement spending.
US President Trump said there was no more killing of protestors in Iran. The remarks are seen as reducing the chance of US intervention. Oil prices dropped modestly in response—but circa 3% moves are not really significant in macroeconomic terms.