The "sock puppet" premium

Daily update

Oil prices are up again on oil pipeline attacks and delayed talks. Some shifts in oil demand are enduring. China's scaled back demand, and the use of global oil reserves are not infinite, eroding resilience to each additional shock.
US inflation was largely as expected, but record US diesel prices raise questions about future cost pressures. Underlying disinflation is being overlooked and markets are pricing a US rate hike—although this sort of inflation is beyond monetary policy control.
Federal Reserve Chair Warsh's "communication" style is to not guide markets. US President Trump reiterated a desire for US rates to be the lowest in the world. If Warsh surprises financial markets, it risks reawakening accusations of being a "sock puppet" and raising credibility questions which would require a risk premium in bond pricing. That would raise real borrowing costs for the government and private sector, with implications for investment and trend growth.
ECB President Lagarde speaks. Markets are pricing a growth-damaging series of rate hikes, and it would be helpful if Lagarde offered some guidance.